day one-hundred seven (13. 519)

Far from settled or over with the MOU digitally signed, unless America is accepting their defeat in this adventure, the chronology continues. With no force behind it, the grand deal is akin to an empty table of contents, waiting to be limned by a negotiation process that will prove thornier than the talks—or lack of dialogue—that brought us to this juncture. The terms, not fully disclosed to the public, provides a cessation of strikes in Lebanon but provides no timeline for IDFs withdrawal from southern Beirut. The Israeli government, with Netanyahu also using the opportunity to announce his reelection campaign, has said it will not leave its security zones established in Lebanon, Syria or Gaza, and the country’s defence ministry denounced the draft agreement as not only bad for Israel but for bad for the entire world, accusing US special envoys Kushner and Witkoff of driving a wedge between Washington and Tel Aviv. In addition to sanction relief, apparently with no strings attached though Trump says otherwise—saying a lot things—with its own funds unfrozen, the US tax payers will be remitting some three-hundred billion dollars in reparations under the aegis of an Iranian freedom fund, without reform or the promised regime change nor appropriating oil revenues to repair gulf nation energy infrastructure damaged in the war, with monitoring of its nuclear programme and the matter of its stockpile of enriched uranium deferred for negotiations yet to come. The Strait of Hormuz will supposedly be open to all traffic without restriction as well as Iranian ports—tensions between India and the US flaring over the refusal to apologise for attacking an Indian tanker accused of violating the US naval blockade—on Friday following the formal signing ceremony, with all parties uphold their commitments. Blasts were heard in the area of Qeshm island and the strait.

day one-hundred six (13. 516)

After several tense hours when an IDF strike of the suburbs of Beirut looked to sabotage the entire negotiations—one Trump said shouldn’t have happened, “Let’s not blow it—Iran and the US reached a tentative peace settlement and approved the memorandum of understanding, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the American blockade of Iranian ports. Some twelve billion dollars of frozen Iranian assets will be released, with Europeans insisting that sanction relief must be conditioned on de-nuclearisation. The MOU is scheduled to be signed in Geneva on Friday and at this juncture, de-mining operations will start to clear the waterway to ensure safe passage—and whilst world leaders hailed the return to status quo ante bellum as positive, market reactions were less enthusiastic than expected, with energy prices not expected to come down soon and more time needed to restore lines of distribution and refining. It remains unclear whether Tehran will be able to impose tolls on transiting vessels. The issue of enriched uranium has been tabled for now and Israel was not party to the talks and has not yet responded to the outcome. Questions also remain with respect to Lebanon and the Israeli occupation at the southern border. Although calling it a grand deal, the United States is in a significantly weaker strategic position than when they started the war, failing to achieve objectives laid out for beginning the joint conflict in the first place and not substantively different than what was agreed to under the Obama administration in 2015 and uncertainty remains how enduring this peace might be.

day one hundred-four (13. 508)

Again losing control of the narrative and lashing out with chaotic and contradictory claims of progress towards achieving a peace accord, Trump pulls back on his threats to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure and seize petroleum processing facilities, offering that a deal could be reached by the weekend, after first decrying news out of Tehran that nothing had been agreed upon and then accusing them of spreading disinformation with a leaks of the draft as a sign of movement. Unconscionably, world energy markets hang on Trump’s every word, valuations lurching wildly despite the lack of positive news (he has promised a swift resolution no less than thirty-eight times since the ceasefire went into effect) and minting former first buddy and race-baiting Space Karen Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire with his rocket company going public. Neither Tehran nor Washington have disclosed what the terms of the agreement are—which seems to largely hinge on Israel’s actions in Lebanon, the aggressor excluded from the negotiations—but the administration is conservatively saying still that a deal is imminent, though to my mind the odds are not convincing.

day one hundred-three (13. 504)

The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA, the government agency established by Tehran to oversee maritime traffic established at the beginning of May along with Oman) has announced that the Hormuz is closed until further notice over US attacks. The American navy disables the third tanker this week approaching Iranian or Omani ports in violation of its own blockade. Pakistani intermediaries insist that peace negotiations are ongoing, but Iran announces that US hostilities have rendered the ceasefire meaningless as Iran continues to lob missiles and drones at American allied gulf states. Never respecting the enemy’s veto and showing his cards, Trump is losing the control of the narrative, threatening more strikes (now to take Kharg Island and assume control of petroleum production “much like we have with Venezuela”) whilst saying a deal is imminent, that Israel does what he says, lurching towards mutual exclusively outcomes, in thinking Tehran can be pressured into acquiescing to Washington’s terms and retains significant leverage.

day one-hundred-two (13. 497)

Initially unconvinced of the need for retaliatory strikes on Iran after the downing of a US Apache helicopter gunship, unclear if the crash was really the result of enemy fire, Trump changed his mind over the possible Tonkin ghost, after talking with his military advisors and unironically channeling a 2000 clip from an episode of the West Wing regarding the virtue of a disproportional response, ordered targeting (including reservoirs supplying drinking water) whilst Iran attacked US sites in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Other members of the US administration are downplaying the significance of their posture of self-defence, insisting that the ceasefire still holds.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the Bic Cristal (with synchronopticæ)

twelve years ago: a visit to Genoa

thirteen years ago: blockupy rallies, Italian traffic signs, a duty-free enclave, dragnet surveillance plus the city of Como 

fourteen years ago: conserving endangered sounds 

fifteen years ago: the Bilderberg conference 

seventeen years ago: a Roman holiday 

day one-hundred-one (13. 495)

Israeli defence forces order a forced evacuation of the southern Lebanese city of Tyre ahead of impending airstrikes, as Trump promises that a deal with Iran is close and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened in two or three days. Meanwhile Hezbollah officials urge Beirut to forge closer ties with Tehran and exit US-sponsored peace talks, which the paramilitary political party regards as a surrender. The IDF and Iran have called a separate truce to the fighting, contingent upon Israel refraining from further incursions into Lebanon—as the US administration admits that whilst Washington and Tel Aviv have many shared goals for peace in the Middle East, interests diverge at points and Israel has its own agenda beyond preventing Iranian nuclear ambitions.

day one-hundred (13. 492)

For the first time since the April ceasefire was imposed, Israel and Iran exchange missile strikes, Tehran blaming Washington for recent breaches to the truce and citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon for the resumption of hostilities. Yemeni Houthis attempt to block Israeli flagged ships from transiting the Red Sea. Feared that the escalating tensions will cause the whole process to unwind and reignite the simmering conflict militarily, Qatari and Pakistani diplomats scramble to resume indirect talks. Trump urges Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran, insisting that he is calling the shots and Israel will accept whatever deal the US reaches—Israel responds that that the job was not done and Iran has not been neutralised in its capacity to threaten the security of the region.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a landmark decision for US press freedom (with synchronopticæ),  ICE raids in Los Angeles, more on dazzle camouflage plus trees evolved to survive lighting strikes

twelve years ago: Da Vinci’s birthplace, St Uncumber plus a visit to Cinque Terra

fourteen years ago: Robin Hood tax plus pseudo buttons

fifteen years ago: irrational economics 

seventeen years ago: lost-and-found 

days ninety-eight and ninety-nine (13. 490)

Glomming on to another crisis whipped into a social media frenzy, US secretary of war Pete Hegseth used the observation of the anniversary of D-Day speaking from the beaches at Normandy to cast aspersions on liberated Europe over its immigration policy and courting cultural erasure with another sort of invasion. Whilst Pakistani diplomats continue to work behind the scenes, talks seemingly remain stalled—though American has ostensibly entertained the idea of paying reparations to Tehran, Washington is also floating the idea of confiscating Iranian assets to fund reconstruction projects for gulf nation allies who have sustained losses during the conflict.  Pope Leo condemns the adventure as a unjust war.  

 synchronoptica

one year ago: Psycho Killer (with synchronopticæ) plus a sign post forest

fourteen years ago: Friday afternoon crises plus German fiscal solidarity

fifteen years ago: German chancellor awarded the US Freedom medal 

sixteen years ago: the chemical topography of Saturn plus performer Tom Jones

day ninety-seven (13. 488)

Hezbollah categorically rejects US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and its unspecified pilot security zones. Putin rebuffs Zelenskyy’s request for an in-person meeting with the Russian ruler to bring about settlement to the ongoing war in Ukraine.  Amid frustration and lack of progress over the extension of a truce and restoration of maritime traffic in the Persian gulf, American and Iranian forces continue to exchange fire, with more attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

day ninety-six (13. 484)

In a further rebuke of Trump’s stalled negotiations to end the war with Iran—Tehran pulling out of negotiations altogether over IDF attacks in Lebanon despite the ceasefire and a reported spat between the US president and his Israeli counterpart who views his fighting in Beirut as another obstacle to peace after committing to the joint venture, several GOP representatives have split with their party to joint the Democratic slight minority and pass the war powers act in congress. Though still pending veto-proof assent by the senator and mostly symbolic as whilst the legislative branch has the sole authority to declare war, there is probably little it could do to stop Trump from directing his military with the pretext of imminent threat, the legislation’s ultimate passage after eleven attempts, seven times it failed to reach a floor vote, blocked by the house speaker is significant and does signal Republicans’ break with the president, earlier demonstrated with their rejection of Trump’s anti-weaponisation slush fund to reward loyalists and senators withholding extra funds for his East Wing ballroom.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the foundations of Venice (with synchronopticæ), a Ukrainian sneak attack deep inside of Russia plus a revival of The Weather Channel

fourteen years ago: EU debt-to-GDP 

day ninety-five (13. 483)

In retaliation for American strikes on an oil tanker denied access to Iranian ports for refueling and attacks on Qeshm island, Tehran targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain—the scale of damage done to military installations in the region vastly underreported with some twenty sites affected—countermeasures were not able to prevent a drone attack on Kuwait’s international airport, resulting in one fatality and injuring dozens. The exchange of fire comes amid stalled peace talks to extend the ceasefire, which already seems to be a lost cause as the Revolutionary Guard announces suspension of further negotiations, unwilling to engage in dialogue under duress. Trump maintains a deal will be made and everyone should sit back and relax. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah seems equally strained with more deadly skirmishes at the border with Netanyahu downplaying Trump’s dissatisfaction with IDF breaches, and Ukrainian drones hit St Petersburg as Putin opens an economic forum to attract foreign investment as the new Middle East. The faltering administration, stung by assessments from congress that Trump will settle for less from Iran than Obama achieved, meanwhile announces that the US president will attend the upcoming NATO summit in person as some items need to be cleared up amongst allies.

day ninety-four (13. 481)

Fighting rages between IDF and Hezbollah despite the ceasefire brokered by Trump. Again promising a deal by the end of the week with Iran, US secretary of state Marco Rubio reiterates that no sanctions against Tehran are on offer in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, whilst the administration is couching its reparations package as a freedom fund in order to waylay criticism for the promised three hundred billion in damages.

day ninety-three (13. 478)

Catching the US unaware, Tehran announces that Israeli incursions into Lebanon, representing a violation of the separate ceasefire, and suspends further peace talks. Per Trump’s agreement with Netanyahu, Israel will not send additional ground troops into Beirut though it appears that deployment against Hezbollah has already begun. Despite the armistice holding in name, America has targeted more Iranian radar stations whilst US bases in Kuwait remain under assault. Though there is no deal, Trump is seeking to make edits to the framework of a settlement.

day ninety-one (13. 473)

No deal emerges between Washington and Tehran after the praise-a-thon cabinet meeting in the Situation Room as the chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz continues to grind away on the global economy and energy supplies with attendant effects on tourism, world food security and investment opportunities for the gulf states. Though it seems that Trump’s only exit strategy is surrender and Republicans are warning him to spin whatever settlement is achieved as materially different and superior to the agreement that Obama reached and Trump torpedoed in his first term in office and tolerance for his destructive whims will not be enduring, it is yet baffling that the stupidity and hubris of a single individual can in a decentralised society where the power and relevance of nation states are subverted by corporations can cause so much chaos and influence without the cooperation or consent of traditional allies and partners. Bored with the messes he has made and little appetite for the politics of the upcoming midterms, Trump turns his attention to preening and MCing America’s birthday bash—a relatively harmless activity, despite the potential for propaganda.

day eighty-nine (13. 469)

As peace talks continue to circle in a critical phase (both parties deny a draft framework for ending the blockades), the brittle ceasefire between Iran and the US seems ready to break at any moment with the second defensive strike launched against the Revolutionary Guards strategic installation in Bandar Abbas, capable of defending the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran launched drones at American bases in Kuwait. Trump issues a volley of threats against Oman for its arrangement with Tehran to regulate and toll traffic through the Persian gulf. Furthermore, Trump is planning to impose sanctions on those shipping companies that do pay the transit fees and is targeting Iran air carriers to try to exert more economic pressure (in parallel, Trump is attempting to do the same for airports in Democratically leaning hubs domestically) on the country that has so far been resilient in the face of direct and indirect attacks. IDF bombing campaigns kill dozens in southern Beirut as evacuation orders expand.  Israel also asserts control over seventy percent of the Gaza Strip.

day eighty-six (13. 462)

Whilst acknowledging that some progress is being made, Tehran is denying that a deal with Washington has been reached. Trump, expressing his desire to make the settlement an even more historic event, he insists that the signing ceremonies include Saudi Arabian and Qatari assent to the Abraham Accords, recognising the state of Israel—implying stability in the region for the joint US-Israeli war of aggression might be a precondition for his Board of Peace members.  Mexico offers to host the Itanian national football team during the FIFA World Cup, though matches may still take place in Arizona.

day eighty-three (13. 456)

Trump again raises spectre of military intervention in Cuba. Macro Rubio will visit the issue of Trump’s disappointment with NATO allies during the upcoming anniversary of the founding. Though the position of redeployment of US troops in Germany seems to be settled, the president abruptly reversed his decision to stop stationing soldiers in Poland, leaving all parties confused. No appreciable progress has been made on negotiations with Iran as global petroleum supplies approach a red zone as reserves dwindle and are depleted. US director of national intelligence Tussi Gabbard is sidelined, marking another departure from the cabinet.

day eighty-one (13. 448)

With the White House press secretary on maternity leave, the last couple of press conferences have been hosted by secretary of state Rubio and the latest by US vice president, both contenders as Trump’s successor—the president being coy about whom he’ll endorse or anoint—and Vance addressed journalists about the state of the war, reiterating that Tehran’s relinquishment of its atomic ambitions is the core condition of negotiations to achieve a lasting peace—with all other details up for debate. Certainly if Iran was not already seeking to establish a nuclear deterrent, the joint US-Israeli war of aggression persuaded them such counter-measures are worth pursuing, the vice president saying that any leniency would set off a regional arms race and that the US is ready to restart its military campaign should further talks fail with a weekend deadline to come to terms. Supposedly deferring to other gulf states in waivering the resumption of strikes increasing looks like an offramp as the conflict approaches its third month. NATO command says that a potential mission in the Strait of Hormuz would be a political decision on the part of alliance members follow a meeting of G7 finance ministers urging action.  Putin meets with Xi in a mirror image of Trump’s visit.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links to enjoy (with synchronopticæ) 

twelve years ago: honey-traps plus quantitative easing

thirteen years ago: preparing for a return trip to Switzerland plus top toponymy 

fourteen years ago: castle ruins as a conference venue plus shadow social networks

fifteen years ago: German jobs report 

day eighty (13. 445)

Despite the lack of a clear breakthrough in negotiations, Trump claims he has told an alliance of gulf states to delay a sneak attack that was supposed to be launched against Iran Tuesday morning following Tehran’s new proposal to end the war, allowing time for further talks. Both the belayed orders (at their behest) and word of progress seem to take all parties by surprise. The US Treasury Department reversed its earlier decision and extended the sanctions waiver for Russian oil at sea. Tensions between Iran and the UAE rise as it brings its damaged nuclear reactor back online.

synchronoptica

one year ago: Press Your Luck (with synchronopticæ) plus historical crippling tariffs

twelve years ago: roadside minions, the resiliency and fragility of the mind plus censorious social networks

thirteen years ago: the son of Hibachi plus a visit to Hofheim

fourteen years ago: public art 

fifteen years ago: the illusion of time 

sixteen years ago: returning from Alsace 

day seventy-nine (13. 441)

According to Amnesty International, the Iranian regime has executed a record number of dissidents this year, using the war as cover for sham trials of protesters. Saudi Arabia incepts drones coming from Iranian territory, whilst a strike seems to have started a fire at a nuclear power plant in the Emirates, in possible retribution for hosting secret meetings with Israeli leadership. Trump is losing patience as hardliners in Tehran look to sabotage any deal with the US, the fragile ceasefire unravelling. Waivers on Russian oil at sea are allowed to expire with American sanctions reimposed. Hezbollah deploys wired, fibre optic drones against the IDF, impervious to jamming and detection.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a revivalist Rosicrucian (with synchronopticæ) plus NYC’s Subway Sun

twelve years ago: ocular floaters, chameleon ivy plus outrageous baby names

thirteen years ago: German breads 

fourteen years ago: more on Greek sovereign debt 

fifteen years ago: know your allergens plus translations needing a second opinion  

seventeen years ago: moving house and home