day sixty-nine (13. 410)

Despite and exchange of fire between Iranian assets and US warship—and more attacks on Emirati territory—rattling world markets as hope evaporates for a quick resolution and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump insists that the ceasefire is holding, “Yeah, it is. They trifled with us today. We blew them away. They trifled. I call that a trifle.”

The Revolutionary Guard set up a new government agency with the charter to administer toll and vet vessels transiting through the vital waterway, fifteen hundred ships remain stranded in the gulf. Iran further reports of drone interception near the city of Bandar Abbas and the strait island of Qeshm. Lebanon and Israel have scheduled a new round of peace negotiations, whilst Tehran has yet to commit to or comment on further talks. US secretary of state Marco Rubio meets with the Pope at the Vatican to discuss a “durable” deal to iron out differences between the American president and pontiff.

synchronoptica

one year ago: Germany observes the eightieth anniversary of Victory in Europe day (with synchronopticæ), habemus papam plus assorted links worth the revisit 

thirteen years ago: the AKK Conflict between Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz plus the Schlachthof of Wiesbaden

day sixty-eight (13. 407)

As the assault continues in Lebanon—with a small moment of unexpected joy for local priests when the Pope jumped in on their Zoom call to lift their spirits with tidings of peace coming soon for the border region—Israel claimed no foreknowledge of the Trump administration’s predictions of imminent settlement and were poised to resume air raids in the Iranian theatre. Apparently Trump reversed action on Project Freedom over objections from Riyadh and denying US forces use of Saudi bases and airspace to carry out escort operations. Still blocking Iranian ports, Trump claims Tehran is desperate to make a peace deal, threatening another ultimatum to agree to his terms within forty-eight hours or strikes will resume. Global demand for oil is falling at the fastest rate outside of the COVID pandemic when the price briefly turned negative, through derivatives products like gasoline and fertiliser continue to climb. Damage sustained by US assets and infrastructure in the gulf region has been underreported, with major repairs needed at American military installations.

synchronoptica

one year ago: anticipatory austerity (with synchronopticæ), the giallo genre plus assorted links to revisit

fourteen years ago: diplomatic dysfunction plus France’s new president

day sixty-six (13. 403)

Despite the apparent desire for a show of force and to embarrass Tehran by demonstrating that they do not have a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz (the blockade of the blockade continuing nonetheless as the naval siege remains in place on Iranian ports), Trump has announced a pause of “Project Freedom,”
the US plan (only begun on Monday as a favour to the world) to escort stranded commercial ships out of the waterway and into the Persian gulf—pausing the sealift for a short time to allow negotiations and finalise a settlement to end the frozen conflict. For the second day in a row, petroleum assets in the United Arab Emirates came under drone and missile fire, though Iran denies responsibility for the attacks.

synchronoptica

one year ago:  a controversial visit to a war memorial in Bitburg (with synchronopticæ) plus a music appreciation society

day sixty-five (13. 401)

Whilst Trump is characterising nascent talks as positive and a sign of resolution to the conflict, Tehran is continuing calls that Americans plans to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz a violation of the ceasefire terms and fighting seemed to almost reignite when two US-flagged vessels passed through,

Iran lobbing drones at the warship escorts, the projectiles intercepted and the navy destroying half a dozen Iranian motor boats patrolling the waters. The skirmish did not escalate but further negotiations are contingent upon Iran reopening the waterway—which America claims is not under Iranian control—and agreeing to abandon its nuclear ambitions under Trump’s terms. Operation Epic Fury is declared over as US senate Democrats attempt to relegislate the war powers resolution.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links to revisit (with synchronopticæ) 

fifteen years ago: catastrophism and the the economy 

day sixty-four (13. 399)

As Iranian maritime authorities announce a list of enemy flagged ships, including Israel, that will never be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the US navy extends the offer again to escort tankers, presumably whilst conducting mine-sweeping operations to open up an in-going and an out-going sealane. Though not preferable to diplomacy, Tehran is expressing receptiveness to reengaging in renewed conflict rather suffering a protracted ceasefire, recognised as a stalling tactic on the part of the US and siege warfare meant to grind down the country economically with worldwide consequences. Fuel prices continue to climb with airlines curtailing flight schedules and in one case for a budget-carrier, declaring bankruptcy. Despite the truce, Israel and Hezbollah trade blows in Lebanon as America fast-tracks more arms sales to Middle Eastern allies.

synchronoptica

one year ago: more adventures in the Tauber valley (with sychronopticæ), Radio Free Europe plus a bad-faith broker

fifteen years ago: antiquarian corner 

day sixty-three (13. 397)

Quipping that the US is “sort a like pirates” after the seizure of more Iranian cargo ships and commenting that the US may take over Cuba on the way back from the Persian Gulf, Trump is briefed on Tehran’s new fourteen point peace proposal proffered to end a suggested extension of the ceasefire for a full two months and although now the recalcitrant party, considers it progress—though with the same breath, says that Iran has not suffered enough economically and insists on addressing their atomic ambitions as a prerequisite for any further negotiations. Although probably just a bargaining chip to apply more leverage on Berlin and NATO over trade deals and another instance of TACO, Trump further clarified that the redeployment of five thousand troops from Germany will focus on the Stryker brigade stationed in the Oberplfalz near the village of Vilseck. Someone should remind Trump (or not) it was Obama who closed Heidelberg, Würzburg, Bamberg, etc, and how a withdrawal planned during his first term went no where.  German defence minister Wadephul says that such a withdrawal was assumed and chancellor Merz insists that his relationship with the US president is the same it was a week prior to the announced reduction.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a visit to Rothenburg ob der Tauber (with synchronopticæ)

thirteen years ago: recreating the first web page 

fourteen years ago: a treasury of bookplates 

fifteen years ago: the capture and assassination of bin Laden plus Walpurgisnacht

sixteen years ago: more special houseplants 

day sixty-two (13. 395)

As Trump argues that the war powers resolution up for debate in congress as the conflict enters its second month and sixty day deadline for re-authorisation from the legislature is an unconstitutional check on his powers, the US president elaborates and expounds on his call for removal and redeployment of US troops from bases in Germany, citing five thousand. NATO is seeking an explanation as warnings come for Spain and Italy for their reluctance.

Someone should remind him—or not—that it was Obama who closed the bases in Heidelberg, Würzburg, Bamberg and Schweinfurt. Trump also adds it is treasonous to suggest that America is not winning. US marine corps personnel associates complain of threatening text messages from the supposedly eliminated Iranian navy Meanwhile with tacit confirmation that the new Ayatollah was injured and disfigured in the attack at the beginning of the fighting that killed his extended family, the supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei reasserts his control, calling Iran a military power to be reckoned with in a Labour Day (also defiantly, Teachers’ Day) message. Despite the ceasefire, more die in Lebanon as collateral from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a return to the Tauber river valley (with synchronopticæ)

twelve years ago: more calendric conventions 

thirteen years ago: axis mundi plus a paperback library

fourteen years ago: US-German relations plus May Day vs Americanization Day 

sixteen years ago: returning from Istanbul 

day sixty-one (13. 393)

Following chancellor Merz’ criticism of the administration for its lack of strategy and saying it was being humiliated by Iran, Trump is mulling on reducing the number of the some thirty-six thousand US troops station in Germany, whilst still entertaining the prospect of leaving the NATO alliance entirely over its unwillingness to be drawn into the war with Iran. 

Oil prices rise to above $125 per barrel on news that naval blockade could continue for months with no renewed negotiations on the horizon and Tehran saying it can withstand the US economic pressure campaign. Growth in the EU is surprisingly resilliant and stronger than expected despite the conflict and supply chain disruptions. IDF attacks continue in southern Lebanon and Israel seizes a flotilla of ships carrying humanitarian aid destined for Gaza in international waters.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the Folkish Observer (with synchronopticæ) plus creating a data panopticon 

twelve years ago: US army updates allowable hairstyles plus the American Foreign Service

thirteen years ago: attuned cocktails plus new and novel punctuation

wish fulfilment is not a strategy—we have sidelined the entire world (13. 892)

As the US supreme court was eviscerating the vestiges of the civil rights act meant to redress historical disenfranchisement and under-representation by limiting redistricting and gerrymandering to the regressive standards of the conservative justices, secretary of war Hegseth flanked by joint chief of staff General Dan Caine—appealing to congress for an extra one and a half trillion dollars for the military budget and approval to officially rename the department of defence the department of war—was summoned to Capitol Hill to testify on the cost of the adventure in Iran as the conflict enters its second month. The estimate, which seems to low-ball the true price—particularly when early figures were at a billion dollars a day, stands at twenty-five billion, but still lacking an end date or direction for resolving the diplomatic stalemate. The testimony was filled with the usual rage and rhetoric typical of the former Fox News personality, but in a forum where he could not dismiss or outshout follow-up questions, Hegseth withered before Democrat representatives. Unable to simply bully and berate people for “being negative,” Hegseth tried labelling the House Armed Services Committee as their biggest adversary with their “reckless, feckless and defeatist words” and had no answers for the administration’s costly missteps, the global economic fallout, the blockade of the blockade, unraveling when pressed, deflecting to over-supplying Ukraine under Biden and retreating to the bombastic oratory that his warriors were “forging a lethal arsenal of freedom” with Operation Epic Fury. Manifestly frustrated and shouting at the group, congressman Seth Moulton (attesting he was also a Pulp Fiction fan, alluding to Hegseth’s earlier invocation quoting the film) lobbed a few easier, straightforward questions at the secretary, “This is a softball one for you—don’t screw it up,” asking about the announcement that influenza vaccines would no longer be mandatory for troops, but quickly descended into a cult-like furore, saying that calling out forever wars as the quagmire that they were (again Hegseth’s words) betrayed an entire generation that served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Rather than a projection of power, way out of their depth, the session was rather exposed timidity and terror.

day sixty (13. 891)

The United Arab Emirates announces it will quit OPEC in order to increase exports, seen as a victory by some for Trump who opposes the cartel’s caps on production and price controls. Although the conflict remains essentially frozen and tensions still remain high among allies, during a state visit to the US, King Charles delivered a masterful address to a joint-session of congress in the semiquinncentennial year of the American declaration of independence, apolitical but a model of using soft power to heal rifts. Neighbouring gulf states hold a summit in Riyadh and issue a statement that Tehran must make serious efforts to rebuild confidence and trust following “treacherous” attacks on the region. Russia reiterates financial and materiel support for Iran, as Trump claims that the country is on the verge of collapse and eager to submit to a deal under America’s terms, whilst threatening new sanctions on China for refining Iranian crude oil exports and goes after Iran’s network of shadow banking.

synchronoptica

one year ago: droodles (with synchronopticæ), Trump’s first hundred days plus more e-moluments for the Trump family syndicate

twelve years ago: European far-right parties affinity for Moscow 

thirteen years ago: Iceland’s Jedi party 

fourteen years ago: an intemperate island plus fortress London

fifteen years ago: macroeconomics 

seventeen years ago: German traffic signs 

7x7 (13. 890)

crash blossoms: mentalist MC of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner guessed the name of expectant press secretary’s baby’s name seconds before shooting—via Super Punch 

akte x: a German expression to file something away, to bring a matter to conclusion from the Latin ad ācta  

a show of swords: direct democracy on display in the canton of Appenzell Innerrhoden  

cartel: the United Arab Emirates to quit OPEC after a sixty year membership  

euromaxxing: Hungary’s turn around—via Quantum of Sollazzo  

clausal stacking tolerance: a new test to parse the limits of lexical ambiguity—see previously

lihop, mihop: the language of manufactured crises and phoney outrage (now and then), the tone set by an individual vying for the Nobel Peace Prize yet threatening to destroy civilisations and celebrated the deaths of Rob Reiner and Robert Muller

day fifty-nine (13. 889)

The US unwilling to continue direct talks, Iranian foreign minister Araghchi met with Putin and his counterpart Lavrov in St Petersburg to pursue a separate peace for the region and reached a preliminary settlement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for maritime traffic, leaving the nuclear question tabled until a later time. Tehran for its part is criticising Washington for its reluctance to engage in dialogue and calls out seizure of Iranian flagged ships and the continued naval blockade as piracy. The UN, whilst welcoming the Russian-Iranian detente, said there was no legal basis for imposing tolls on vessels transiting through the international waterway. As the state visit of Charles and Camilla begins to heal the rift in UK-US relations, allies are still critical of America’s lack of strategic direction and that stalled negotiations benefit no one, America forgetting that about the enemy’s vote and veto. Clashes between Hezbollah and Israel continue in Lebanon.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links to revisit (with synchronopticæ) 

twelve years ago: Worker’ Memorial Day 

thirteen years ago: advances in fusion technology, a trending hairstyle, the Frankonian athem plus a visit to Steinheim by Hanau

fifteen years ago: tornados in Germany 

sixteen years ago: vacationing in Istanbul 

404 (13. 388)

Taking up even more bandwidth than the legion of MAGA influencers promoting the East Wing Ballroom and bunker as vital for national security, the resounding attitude that the show must gone on and its best to avert one’s eyes rather than forfeit one’s place at the table that demonstrates the inuring unseriousness of America and its desensitisation to violence, authentic or contrived and willingness to squander diplomatic opportunities in the midst of war, leaving Tehran to negotiate with Moscow and reach a concession to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with no guarantee to halt nuclear enrichment, casus belli, status quo ante bellum, and the German chancellor left to point out the humiliation to a class of students, we have the latest viral conspiracy theory that a time-travelling artificial superintelligence is inserting checkpoints on the internet timeline to warn people about the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner and forestall other catastrophes to providentially keep Trump in office, now that actual divine intervention has been ruled out following his attacks on the papacy. 404 media co-founder Jason Koebler undertakes a yeoman’s task in trying to offer an explanation for this widely-shared notion that a tweet from 2023 from one Henry Martinez, the name of a co-author from a NASA study conducted while the alleged shooter was fulfilling an internship at the space agency in 2014, somehow shows that AI is trying to retcon the Singularity, Terminator-style. Proponents are saying that the image on the right is a sort of coded magic-eye illusion that foretells of all sorts of events to come (retroactively of course, but the image is not from some shadowy AI free agent called the “Time Machine” but a stock illustration that debuted on Unsplash under the name “Eternal Waterfall” and has been used, like many free graphics, to cross-promote a variety of both innocent and nefarious ideas.

day fifty-eight (13. 387)

The wars in the Middle East certainly are not over just because media bandwidth is sublimated with attention lurched towards non-stop coverage of the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner—an event snubbed by Trump since Obama used the venue back in 2011 to mock the future president and inadvertently shape his political narrative of grievance with pointed jokes about his preoccupation with his predecessor’s birth-certificate and questioning his legitimacy. It does suck the oxygen out of the room, especially with the conspiracy theories that the event was staged as a distraction and sympathy building exercise, particularly for a regime that traffics in conspiracy and calls the press the enemy of the people. People are still dying in IDF strikes in Lebanon, peace talks are still stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed with all the attendant economic consequences ripening.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a Millennial saint (with synchronopticæ), Trump DOJ threatens Wikipedia, Tesla backlash, an iconic antique shop plus gratitude built into grammar

twelve years ago: the state of non-doing plus superlative sentences

thirteen years ago: glacial melting 

fourteen years ago: originalism and invoking the Founding Fathers 

fifteen years ago: UN World Graphic Design Day plus championing a make-a-diorama day

seventeen years ago: swine-flu outbreak 

day fifty-seven (13. 384)

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi left the Pakistani capital to travel to Oman and Russia for separate as talks with the US were abruptly put on hold once again, the envoys told to cancel their trip to Islamabad, with Trump calling direct negotiations a waste of time, despite claims he received a better offer from Iran shortly before suspending the meeting. The American navy continues the blockade of the Persian Gulf and expands operations to detect and disable sea mines and wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. Despite the truce, Netanyahu is ordering an intensification on attacks of Hezbollah in the suburbs south of Beirut.  Nearly two months into the war, shipping and supply chains frayed beyond easy repair, national economies of all sizes are formulating contingency plans to brace for long term disruption and scarcity.  Trump adds that the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ will not deter his Middle East policy.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links worth the revisit (with synchronopticæ), crab allies plus Trump and Zelenskyy hold an impromptu meeting at the Pope’s funeral

 

twelve years ago: net neutrality 

 

thirteen years ago: natural dyes 

 

fourteen years ago: asteroid prospecting 

 

fifteen years ago: passport application process in US made more difficult 

day fifty-six (13. 380)

For some time we’ve been dealing with Schrödinger’s Strait, is it open or is it closed, and the on-again, off-again peace talks—which Tehran denies requesting and remains insistent that there will be no direct negotiations under duress, the blockade of the blockade. The Trump administration is sending Kushner and Witkoff without Vance to Pakistan, whilst the latest situation report from the US secretary of war says that limited transit is occurring through the Strait of Hormuz but at risk due to Iran’s threatening of vessels and the uncertainty of the sea mines, reiterating that American force are poised to resume their air campaign at a moment’s notice.  US secretary of state is drafting more sanctions against Iranian economic interest, and meanwhile, though other European leaders are not bought in and call the proposal premature, Chancellor Merz has suggested the easing of the overall embargo as a peace offering (see previous post). 

Switzerland reopens its embassy—which has served to represent American interests since 1979 when relations were broken off—in Tehran in anticipation of supporting renewed diplomatic initiatives. Despite there being no mechanism for giving demerits to members of the transatlantic defensive alliance, a leaked memorandum is exploring ways to kick Spain out of NATO for refusing to allow the US to use its bases to prosecute its war of choice and disparages other members generally. The memo also attacks the UK for its lack of enthusiasm and again brings up its decision on Diego Garcia. Claiming to have killed six terrorist fighters in southern Lebanon, Israel is accusing Hezbollah of sabotaging the fragile truce.

synchronoptica

one year ago: US products get a tariff label in Canadian markets (with synchronopticæ), celebrities in cars plus artificial intelligence literacy

fifteen years ago: post-war Trümmelbergen plus foot mittens

unsg (13. 375)

With auditions for the leadership role only governed by custom and consensus and not specifically enshrined by charter, rotating by region after each five-year term (though the length is also discretionary and upheld by the office-holder, subject to renewal) with Latin America due for the turn and reserved for the middle-powers, by tradition members from the Security Council excluded, few have this session have put themselves forward for the job of United Nations secretary-general, only four candidates compared with the thirteen contenders under consideration during the selection process of 2016. At a time when norms have been proven insufficient to contain imperial ambitions, particularly with the US allowing a magisterial presidency, record numbers of veteran senators and congressional representatives retiring—which whilst not a universal condition, the home-grown breach in ceremony is an export—in response to that power imbalance, the influence of the UN ill-equipped to mediate the divide between world powers, blocked by permanent members who have vetoed stopping the fighting in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran (whom also reserve the right to overturn a nomination by the general assembly for leader), the position appears rather thankless. The frontrunner, Michelle Bachelet, former Chilean president and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights is already facing opposition from the American delegation over her gender and purported extremist agenda.

day fifty-four (13. 373)

Trump unilaterally announced a two-week extension of the ceasefire in Iran as the second round of negotiations fail to materialise as Tehran sits them out over untenable US demands, reversing his threats of an immediate resumption of airstrikes hours before the original deadline, the prospect particularly disturbing after unsubstantiated yet plausible rumours that the president was restrained after lunging for the nuclear football during a meeting in the White House situation room. General Majid Mousavi, head of the aerospace division of the Revolutionary Guard, promised to end oil production in the Middle East, again issuing warnings to gulf states that cooperate with America if the blockade on Iranian ports is not lifted as exports virtual stop with tankers unable to be refilled and Kharg Island ground based storage at capacity, exerting pressure on the country to return to the table by eliminating its remaining revenue streams. Meanwhile, the traffic snarl in the Persian Gulf has caused ships to be diverted to arrive in the East by going West through the Panama Canal, resulting in significant queuing there. France and the UK hold separate meetings on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to maritime navigation, the Americans disinvited. US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee will chair direct talks with Lebanon in Washington regarding their own fragile truce and extricating themselves from Hezbollah influence.

synchronoptica

one year ago: emerald glasses (with synchronopticæ) plus the return of Home Star Runner 

fourteen years ago: keeping the internet open and free plus open borders

fifteen years ago: Big Brother and the Snitch Mob plus Earth Day

day fifty-three (13. 371)

With the end of the two-week ceasefire approaching, confusion and mixed messages continue to emerge from the White House, with chief negotiator JD Vance’s whereabouts unknown, contradicting claims he was already en route to peace talks in Pakistan aimed to forestall a resumption in fighting with reports the vice president has remained in Washington, though now apparently scheduled to depart. It is unclear if any meeting will take place with Tehran insisting no negotiations will happen under duress and threat as the blockade continues to be enforced. Trump, confident and denying news of pressure to restore stability, insists, “the DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA,” referring to the agreement struck under the Obama administration in 2015. The spokesman of the Iranian paramilitary hints that the country still has unexercised options for the battlefield. Global stock markets are surrendering gains as optimism fades for a quick and tidy resolution and energy prices again rise. Clashes escalate in Gaza between the IDF and Hamas fighters.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the death of Pope Francis (with synchronopticæ)

thirteen years ago: GMO apples plus a pheromone party

fifteen years ago: energy-saving light bulbs 

sixteen years ago: the internet is for crying-wolf 

day fifty-two (13. 368)

The confusion and chaos of yesterday’s developments surely merited an addendum as well, but it was very hard to keep up or know what might happen next.  Following confusion on who might lead the US delegation in Pakistan, first saying that the vice president would not attend due to the short notice and security protocols of the Secret Service, it turns out that the same tired and ineffectual cast of Vance, Kushner and Witkoff are travelling back to Islamabad for peace talks on Monday, the Iranian foreign ministry announced that it would not participate in negotiations with the US over the American naval blockade of the country’s ports, calling the collective punishment a violation of the ceasefire and tantamount to a war crime and would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until a peace deal is reached. Escalating tensions further, US marines incepted and boarded the M/V Touska that tried to run the cordon. Despite the uncertainty of talks, cargo planes have landed in Pakistan to prepare for the arrival of delegates, which Tehran fears might be cover for a sneak attack.  Oil prices and other other commodities have surged. The death toll of joint Israeli and American airstrikes pass five thousand with neighbours in Beirut’s southern suburbs being demolished by bulldozers.   Despite clearing stating he did not wish to debate Donald Trump on the merits of just wars and wars of choice and further distract from his pastoral tour of Africa, JD Vance, a recent Catholic convert, still thought it necessary to lecture the Pope on religion, in keeping with his berating of US allies during the Munich Security Conference and every time he feels the opportunity presents itself.  Secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, amid shoehorning piety and holy wrath into military manoeuvrers, has labelled the dissenting press as Pharisees for being critical of their claims and questioning their lauded victories.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a return visit to the Hubertusburg (with synchronopticæ) 

thirteen years ago: chess derived vocabulary plus Berlin’s East Side Gallery under threat

fourteen years ago: German-American relations plus a salvaged garden 

fifteen years ago: calculating Easter 

sixteen years ago: travel disrupted due to an Icelandic volcanic eruption