day one hundred sixty-three (13. 714)

In another edition of this is not how anything works, Trump declared that once Iran is defeated—again imminent for the umpteenth time—the Strait of Hormuz will become US territory. Tehran counters that the vital waterway is under their control and cannot be seized, especially by a campaign speech, adding that whilst the agreement with Muskat may be concluded soon, those negotiations have nothing to do with Washington and America and her allies will remain under restrictions until the blockade ends and reparations are paid. Repatriation of the Panama Canal seemed to be a non-starter so maybe this delusional addition to the American empire might be a consolation-despite pledges to still make fetch happen. Market manipulation—though running of the fumes of AI driven trades and a derivative, speculative stocks—is losing cache as the US president once again dismisses the financial hardships of the underclass as the hierarchy sheds confidence as well. Hezbollah rejects ongoing negotiations between Tel Aviv and Beirut, saying that they are equal to Lebanon surrendering to Israel.

day one hundred sixty-two (13. 711)

Rebuffing criticism regarding the welfare of sailors in the Persian gulf, US secretary of war Hegseth claims America can maintain its blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely as the commerce department announces plans to further isolate Tehran economically, though it’s already starting at near zero and only needs to eke out survival one day at a time and outlast the US financial trickery until the markets no longer accept Trump’s word as fiat. Also splintering with traditional allies—those required for upping the latest round of sanctions, American announces a multi-modal drone task force, Falcon Strike. As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to stagnate, Norway‘s foreign minister joins a growing chorus calling the joint US-Israeli adventure a regressive failure, whilst US consumer sentiment falters on hopes of any relief or recovery any time soon. France condemns Israeli settlers for occupying the homes of evicted Palestinian, whilst Netanyahu calls the UK the Islamic Republic of Britain—amplifying a xenophobic dog-whistle, adding that the UK is the first nuclear capable Muslim country.

day one hundred sixty-one (13. 709)

In an unprecedentedly long deployment starting in the Caribbean with the invasion of Venezuela and then moving to the Middle Eastern theatre with no shore leave, care packages and beset with plumbing problems and contaminated water, more than one sailor has reportedly jumped overboard from the USS Abraham Lincoln, with the American Congress demanding to be allowed to inspect conditions. Barely deigning the counterclaims by the Trump administration, Tehran reasserts that it is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz and is not entertaining further negotiations. After twenty months and an extended maternity leave, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt abruptly resigns after being used as a decoy on the president‘s return flight from the NATO summit in Ankara—not only foregoing the gifted Air Force One out of an abundance of caution or nostalgia but also secreted onboard a third plane in a catering truck, with many members of the press corps and cabinet officials dispatched as diversion for a paranoid Trump fearing assassins.

day one hundred sixty (13. 707)

The EU issues another condemnation of continued political executions in Iran whilst Lebanon outlaws the death penalty. Houthi rebels maintain their hold on the junctions to the Red Sea. A grounded Russian tanker is leaking oil off of the coast of Oman—threatening environmental damage greater than the Exxon Valdez. Even if markets are still failing to acknowledge realities, the the International Energy Agency assesses that the world is burning through petroleum reserves.

day one hundred fifty eight (13. 703)

Reportedly, recompense to the insult to Carter and the grace and favour of Reagan in timing the release of the hostages to Reagan‘s 1981 inauguration, the Revolutionary Guard claims that they will engage in no further negotiations with Trump and will wait until the next administration takes office in January of 2029 to resume talks—Tehran assuming that there will be future elections in the US and/or Trump lasts the rest of his term. Meanwhile, seemingly completely disconnected with reality, Trump declares that the seaway has been fully demined and that the Hormuz is open under American control—with the US seeking monetary compensation from Iran.

day one hundred fifty six (13. 698)

Greenlandic authorities issue stern warnings to a Trump-linked, Texas-based oil company when drilling equipment arrives and is unloaded via tugboats on the semi-autonomous arctic island without permission—or license for petroleum extraction with Nuuk having a moratorium on exploration since 2021 for environmental concerns and the site borders on a protected wetland. Scheduled to begin drilling according to the company in October, claiming there are a trillion barrels in the reservoir and ostensibly a path to lowering gas prices just before the midterms and a casus belli for annexation should Greenland refuse allowing kit to be put in place.

The US president responds to the situation with a dumb but very menacing AI generated image. The Revolutionary Guard announces that the exclusively Iranian-Omani deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is indefinitely postponed due to American interference and not honouring terms of their negotiations unless America corrects its behaviour, despite major concessions already granted—with extra disdain for Trump trying to insert himself into the talks that the US administration had nothing to do part in.

day one-hundred fifty-five (13. 696)

Türkiye enters a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, saying the alliance does not contradict its commitment to NATO. Small municipal water utilities across the US experience cyber attacks on their equipment, with authorities suspecting Iranian hackers though Trump dismisses the assessment—instead blaming the incompetence of political opponents like Wisconsin governor Tim Walz. America promises to lift the blockade of Iranian ports without conditions once Tehran and Muscat finalise negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

day one-hundred fifty-four (13. 693)

After a series of intense bombardments of Kyiv, Ukraine hits back with more attacks on Wildberries fulfilment centres and petroleum refineries deep inside Russia, confounding its ability to finance its war. US secretary of state Rubio and UK foreign minister Milliband emphasised their shared commitment to open shipping channels and preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Houthis stage a violent coup against the recognised Yemeni government as the movement announces expanded military operations. The Strait of Hormuz is reported of the verge of being reopened as Tehran and Muscat agree upon the coordinates of the route for the transit chokepoint. Whilst Trump, excluded from the negotiation process maintains that he would much rather reach a deal with Iran rather than resume the US offensive, Netanyahu, ahead of elections, hints at unilateral action to prolong and undoubted escalate this costly and illegal joint undertaking.

synchronoptica 

one year ago: the Vostok 2 mission (with synchronoptica) plus assorted links worth the revisit

two years ago: a 1963 surf-rock banger, chess notation plus presidential candidate Kamala Harris introduces running-mate Tim Walz

three years ago: Stay by Lisa Loeb (1994) plus born this day in 1911, Lucille Ball 

four years ago: the dissolution of the Holy Roman Empire (1806) plus more links to enjoy 

five years ago: Klaus Nomi, Ghanaian heraldic standards plus Olympic trivia

six years ago: Trieste street photography, anime Spongebob plus caveat scriptor

day one-hundred fifty-three (13. 691)

Houthi rebels target a Saudi Arabian oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, issuing more warning to vessels to avoid Saudi ports. IDF launches strikes on the suburbs south of Beirut. Tehran and Muscat appear ready to finalise a deal for entrance and egress respectively cleaving to the coastlines of the Islamic Republic and the Sultanate, presaging reopening of the Hormuz under their joint-administration, barring interference from certain third-parties.  Meanwhile Trump lauds the deal to restore access “tomorrow or the next day” with the US manifestly excluded from negotiations, conditioned on the end of the American blockade. Humanoid character and US secretary of the treasury Scott Bessent: “Is this a pigeon?”

synchronoptica

one year ago: posthumously restoring citizenship to a confederate general (with synchronoptica), Trump eliminates board of labour statistics following a week jobs report plus ant-eater coevolution

two years ago: Trump assures Christian supporters that if they vote for him this once, they’ll never have to worry about voting again plus assorted links worth revisiting 

three years ago: an anomaly observatory, more links to enjoy plus the Nixon tapes

four years ago: a chart-topper from Doris Day, an album from Pink Floyd, an insightful globe plus an aesthetic mapping app

five years ago: even more links, a Da Vinci sketch plus a classic from The Beatles

six years ago: potential TikTok ban in the US, early advances in telegraphy, even more links plus a critique of The Giving Tree

day one-hundred fifty-two (13. 689)

Jordan, whose Hashemite monarchy administers the religious site in Jerusalem and maintains the status quo treaty that stipulates only Muslims can prayer there, convenes an emergency meeting of ministers from the Islamic world due to the possible Israeli takeover of the al-Aqsa mosque and Dome of the Rock, which the Jews refer to as the Temple Mount. Tensions are heightened as illegal settlements continue to edge out the Palestinian population in the West Bank. With Qatar reportedly brokering indirect talks, US secretaries of state and the treasury hint that a deal over the Strait of Hormuz will be achieved very soon (“possibly today or tomorrow” as opposed to two-weeks) and fuel prices will begin to tumble as Trump complains about oil companies’ record quarterly profits and demands lower petrol prices. Iranian president Masud Pezeshkian asserts he has no intention of resigning amid speculation regarding his political future.

day one-hundred fifty-one (13. 686)

In retaliation for strikes on cargo ships in the Caspian, Iran says it was ready to attack Ukraine but reconsidered and called off the strikes. Despite having just walked back his latest threats to allow for negotiations that Tehran denies were even on the table, Trump says that the Islamic Republic now has its last chance to make a deal or surrender and face total “decapitation”—again. Iran reiterates its refusal to negotiate under duress and the blockade of its ports against the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding, repeating it is only in talks with Oman over the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump White House makes a deal with defence contractors to restock the dwindling supplies of Patriot and THAAD missiles.

day one-hundred fifty (13. 684)

Categorically denying Trump’s claim that he called off the “biggest attack since World War II” at the request from Iran so that talks could resume on Monday (without providing details of where or with whom) regarding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran says reports from Washington were untrue, that no negotiations have been scheduled and that Iranian forces stand ready to defend themselves. Officials add that the only imminent deal being negotiated is with Oman for administration of the vital maritime artery and are not interested in working with the US over continued violations of their MOU: Despite the fact that this marks the fourth of fifth time Trump has stepped back from the brink, citing phantom progress, the markets hang on his every word and react with irrational exuberance.

day one-hundred forty-nine (13. 681)

The EU is to host an emergency meeting of interior ministers over migrants massing at the north African frontier of Spain at Ceuta.  As the illegal joint Israeli-US war on Iran continues to spiral out of control with its expansion into Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Trump announces that he has decided to “hold off” on further attacks, with the “perimeters of a deal” agreed upon by Tehran—adding that Tel Aviv was joining the US in committing to giving negotiations time to work.Condemned as rank corruption and a tool of market-manipulation, Trump is trying to sell a premium membership plan to his social network that offers the top tier early access to his missive so they can buy and sell stocks accordingly.  An exchange with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly persuades Trump to cancel operations. Dialogue, of which there is only scant evidence from Pakistani and Emirati envoys other than Trump’s vacillating threats, only concerns reopening the Strait of Hormuz to avoid a global economic recession over the energy crisis.

day one-hundred forty-eight (13. 678)

Kyiv is pummelled by Russia raids as Ukraine awaits promised permission from the US to produce their own Patriot air defence batteries, America expressing some reluctance now over releasing the licenses. As rhetoric intensifies, both Washington and Tehran threaten to attack vital infrastructure in gulf nations hosting America bases, oil fields, refineries and commercial assets and bridges, highways and power plants in the Islamic Republic, the latter in Trump’s sites speaking during a cabinet meeting called at Camp David, the US president whilst admitting Iran did have a few missiles left, was militarily defeated: “All you can do is keep winning, and the eventually something will happen.” Houthi rebels deny accusations that they plan to place tolls on passage to the Red Sea, insisting that the Bab el-Mandab strait will remain free. The Revolutionary Guard disables more tankers attempting to cross the Hormuz as US naval forces hold the blockade on Iranian ports. Fifty thousand migrants in the span of twenty four hours attempt to enter the exclave of Ceuta through Morocco as the EU moves to suspend member Spain from the Schengen free-movement zone to control immigration.

day one-hundred forty-seven (13. 674)

Saudi Arabia announces a maritime defensive alliance to secure navigation through the Strait of Bab al-Mandab correcting the Red Sea and the gulf of Aden and repel attacks by the Houthi. Trump claims breakthrough deal for the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza reached by his Board of Peace—saying the US will implement the accord unilaterally if Israel does not agree. NATO jets scramble as Russian missile strays into Polish airspace and detonates outside of a village, the latest in a series of incursions. Under protection of IDF, dozens of Israeli settlers storm a small village near Nablus in the Occupied West Bank. Iranian drones hit a US base and Chinese-owned commercial tower in Kuwait.

day one-hundred forty-seven (13. 671)

After a pause of nearly a fortnight, the US resumes air raids on Iran in retaliation to Tehran’s targeting of American bases in Jordan with explosions reported in Kish, Bushehr and on Qeshm island. Washington’s treasury department applies sanctions to Iranian linked maritime insurers and its shadow fleet as part of its economic pressure campaign as inflation surges for basic goods, nearing ninety-percent. A drone strike has hit a US owned floating liquified natural gas platform at an Egyptian port. Joint US-Saudi attacks in Mosul kill twenty fighters of the Popular Mobilisation Forces. The US federal reserve holds interest rates steady as the ongoing conflict bodes for an inflation shock.

day one-hundred forty-six (13. 669)

Following an impassioned appeal by Zelenskyy, who was in Washington for the funeral of Lindsey Graham (as was Netanyahu), the US senate passes landmark sanctions on Russia. American and Saudi forces launch strikes against Iranian affiliated targets in Iraq. Ukraine hits more Russian bound Iranian cargo ships in the Caspian Sea, calling them indirect combatants. China is accused of supplying Iran with shoulder fired missile launchers. US Central Command announces joint AI working group in partnership with the UAE, the task force called Talon Synapse aimed at integrating artificial intelligence in military applications and cyber security. Negotiations still stalled with Trump claiming some “good” talks, the US president threatens Tehran with a fresh wave of strikes on civilian infrastructure if no deal is reached. 

day one-hundred forty-five (13. 664)

Following the disclosure by Zelenskyy that Russia is providing satellite telemetry to the Iranians to target US bases in the Middle East, Trump announces that he will confront Putin directly—something we thought had been verified or at least suspect from the start of the war. Responding to criticisms regarding under-reporting of American casualties and the extent of damage done to installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, the Pentagon revises upwards its official figures. Duelling blockades in the Strait of Hormuz continue with ships being turned back from the Persian gulf and Iranian ports. Calling for the release of political prisoners, the US state department strongly condemns continued executions of protesters. As bombing and demolition continue in southern Lebanon, Trump and Netanyahu are scheduled to meet to discuss extracting themselves from the war in Iran—neither having the appetite for prolonged negotiations.

day one-hundred forty-four (13. 660)

After showing his cards by pushing for an extension of the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding told that the world was four weeks away from economic collapse due to energy shocks, Trump also over-shares his decision to scale back strikes, driven by critically low munition supplies. Touting the pause as a space for diplomacy, Iran has also halted retaliatory attacks on Gulf allies hosting US bases. During the hostage crisis, Tehran waited out the Carter administration for four-hundred forty-four days to time their release with Reagan’s inauguration. Separately, Iran and Oman have continued negotiations about management of the Strait of Hormuz and the Supreme Leader insists that Lebanese territorial integrity must be included in any future negotiations with Washington. Netanyahu, under considerable political pressure to show his campaigns against Iran and Hezbollah have been effective as he is up for reelection and has been critical of the US willingness to try to make a deal, is to meet with Trump on Tuesday.

day one-hundred forty-three (13. 656)

An individual known to authorities as a member of the “Islamist scene” drives a van through crowds gathered for Berlin’s Christopher Street Day parade, the Pride festival named after the address of the Stonewall Inn in New York City, riots against police raids there starting off the gay rights struggle. The ramming incident leaves one dead and sixteen injured. Iran reports the first night without US strikes in two weeks—Washington officials cite the potential to “dangerously drain” already diminished munitions stockpiles in the region. The Houthi launch ballistics at Saudi Arabia in reprisal for the destruction of the airport at SanaaTehran’s foreign ministry summons Ukrainian diplomatic envoy to explain why Kyiv targeted an an Iranian flagged vessel in the Caspian sea, straining tensions between the two star-crossed and besieged underdogs. Israeli settlers in the West Bank burn down a mosque as more neighbourhoods are bulldozed.