day one-hundred-one (13. 495)

Israeli defence forces order a forced evacuation of the southern Lebanese city of Tyre ahead of impending airstrikes, as Trump promises that a deal with Iran is close and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened in two or three days. Meanwhile Hezbollah officials urge Beirut to forge closer ties with Tehran and exit US-sponsored peace talks, which the paramilitary political party regards as a surrender. The IDF and Iran have called a separate truce to the fighting, contingent upon Israel refraining from further incursions into Lebanon—as the US administration admits that whilst Washington and Tel Aviv have many shared goals for peace in the Middle East, interests diverge at points and Israel has its own agenda beyond preventing Iranian nuclear ambitions.

day one-hundred (13. 492)

For the first time since the April ceasefire was imposed, Israel and Iran exchange missile strikes, Tehran blaming Washington for recent breaches to the truce and citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon for the resumption of hostilities. Yemeni Houthis attempt to block Israeli flagged ships from transiting the Red Sea. Feared that the escalating tensions will cause the whole process to unwind and reignite the simmering conflict militarily, Qatari and Pakistani diplomats scramble to resume indirect talks. Trump urges Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran, insisting that he is calling the shots and Israel will accept whatever deal the US reaches—Israel responds that that the job was not done and Iran has not been neutralised in its capacity to threaten the security of the region.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a landmark decision for US press freedom (with synchronopticæ),  ICE raids in Los Angeles, more on dazzle camouflage plus trees evolved to survive lighting strikes

twelve years ago: Da Vinci’s birthplace, St Uncumber plus a visit to Cinque Terra

fourteen years ago: Robin Hood tax plus pseudo buttons

fifteen years ago: irrational economics 

seventeen years ago: lost-and-found 

day ninety-six (13. 484)

In a further rebuke of Trump’s stalled negotiations to end the war with Iran—Tehran pulling out of negotiations altogether over IDF attacks in Lebanon despite the ceasefire and a reported spat between the US president and his Israeli counterpart who views his fighting in Beirut as another obstacle to peace after committing to the joint venture, several GOP representatives have split with their party to joint the Democratic slight minority and pass the war powers act in congress. Though still pending veto-proof assent by the senator and mostly symbolic as whilst the legislative branch has the sole authority to declare war, there is probably little it could do to stop Trump from directing his military with the pretext of imminent threat, the legislation’s ultimate passage after eleven attempts, seven times it failed to reach a floor vote, blocked by the house speaker is significant and does signal Republicans’ break with the president, earlier demonstrated with their rejection of Trump’s anti-weaponisation slush fund to reward loyalists and senators withholding extra funds for his East Wing ballroom.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the foundations of Venice (with synchronopticæ), a Ukrainian sneak attack deep inside of Russia plus a revival of The Weather Channel

fourteen years ago: EU debt-to-GDP 

day ninety-four (13. 481)

Fighting rages between IDF and Hezbollah despite the ceasefire brokered by Trump. Again promising a deal by the end of the week with Iran, US secretary of state Marco Rubio reiterates that no sanctions against Tehran are on offer in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, whilst the administration is couching its reparations package as a freedom fund in order to waylay criticism for the promised three hundred billion in damages.

day ninety-three (13. 478)

Catching the US unaware, Tehran announces that Israeli incursions into Lebanon, representing a violation of the separate ceasefire, and suspends further peace talks. Per Trump’s agreement with Netanyahu, Israel will not send additional ground troops into Beirut though it appears that deployment against Hezbollah has already begun. Despite the armistice holding in name, America has targeted more Iranian radar stations whilst US bases in Kuwait remain under assault. Though there is no deal, Trump is seeking to make edits to the framework of a settlement.

day eighty-nine (13. 469)

As peace talks continue to circle in a critical phase (both parties deny a draft framework for ending the blockades), the brittle ceasefire between Iran and the US seems ready to break at any moment with the second defensive strike launched against the Revolutionary Guards strategic installation in Bandar Abbas, capable of defending the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran launched drones at American bases in Kuwait. Trump issues a volley of threats against Oman for its arrangement with Tehran to regulate and toll traffic through the Persian gulf. Furthermore, Trump is planning to impose sanctions on those shipping companies that do pay the transit fees and is targeting Iran air carriers to try to exert more economic pressure (in parallel, Trump is attempting to do the same for airports in Democratically leaning hubs domestically) on the country that has so far been resilient in the face of direct and indirect attacks. IDF bombing campaigns kill dozens in southern Beirut as evacuation orders expand.  Israel also asserts control over seventy percent of the Gaza Strip.

day seventy-six (13. 432)

Taking a pragmatic approach to the region, China lobbies for a lasting ceasefire for the region and oppose the militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz as the Beijing trip concludes. Trump expresses more frustration with Tehran but seems to soften on demands regarding taking the stockpiles of enriched uranium, as the vote on the war powers act, which would require the president to withdraw forces from the Persian gulf, fails to pass the lower house of congress by a single vote. Taipei takes silence as the best possible outcome following private talks between Xi and the US president. The only clear winners were the entourage of business executives, including the family syndicate, who secured investment deals in microchips and aerospace, with no indication that China, which purchases ninety-percent of Iranian petroleum exports, would alter its arrangement. Twice this week, Venezuela has been referred to as America’s fifty-first state, with Caracas rather nonplussed at this announcement. Renewed negotiation between Israel and Lebannon will begin over the weekend, despite intense fighting between the IDF and Hezbollah.

synchronoptica

one year ago: pigeon bells (with synchronopticæ), the Volstead Act of 1925, assorted links to enjoy plus an ancient Roman mosaic

thirteen years ago: search results and word association 

fourteen years ago: bank bailouts plus continued opposition to increasing farm yields with GMOs

day seventy-five (13. 430)

Trump’s high-stakes meeting with Xi ends after two hours with the US president preparing to depart for home, Trump characterising their relationship as “better than ever” following bilateral talks. Concerns that America would abandon Taiwan appear to be unfounded with that sticking point papered over for now as the Chinese leader, citing the Thucydides Trap, used to describe US-China relations and the fear of being displaced by an emerging power, like the Greeks to the Spartans, should be avoided and work towards becoming “partners and not rivals.” It is unclear what concrete outcomes were achieved. Vice president Vance announces that progress has been made in negotiations with Iran but is yet unclear if Tehran’s concessions will satisfy Trump’s red lines on Iranian nuclear ambitions. Fifteen ships carrying humanitarian aid have been allowed to pass through the US naval blockade of the Persian gulf after a month of the sea embargo being in operation. The almost complete internet blackout in the country reaches its seventh fifth day as the government names Mohammad Reza Aref new cyberspace policy chief.  Continued attacks in Lebanon has reportedly increased support for Hezbollah.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the latest mashup from DJ Earworm (with synchronopticæ) plus night fishing for distant broadcasts 

thirteen years ago: the origins of the peace symbol,  the magic roundabout plus a collection of food and drink patron saints

day seventy-one (13. 416)

Tehran has to yet office an official response to Washington’s peace deal and terms of the truce. Putin offers to take and store for safekeeping Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium if it would help reach a compromise. Iran blames the US for escalation of skirmishes and violating the ceasefire by attacking its commercial vessels and warns of retribution with assault militarily. Fighting between Hezbollah and IDF intensifies with the terror group attacking an army base in Israel as talks for settlement continues with Lebanon, southern neighbourhoods of Lebanon under fire for the first time in weeks. US secretary of state Rubio meets with intermediaries in Qatari, hoping to forward negotiations as a tanker carrying liquified natural gas approaches the Strait of Hormuz, first such delivery sourced from the American ally since the war began. FIFA chiefs maintain that the Iranian national team will participate in its friendly group stage matches to be hosted in Tucson, Arizona as scheduled.

 

synchronoptica

one year ago: a failed Soviet mission to Venus (with sychronopticæ), China’s last telegraph stations plus a harrowing escape attempt from the eruption of Pompeii

fourteen years ago: a night in the Gasometer of Leipzig plus satanic panic

 

fifteen years ago: heat mitigating strategies plus mass alter systems

day sixty-four (13. 399)

As Iranian maritime authorities announce a list of enemy flagged ships, including Israel, that will never be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the US navy extends the offer again to escort tankers, presumably whilst conducting mine-sweeping operations to open up an in-going and an out-going sealane. Though not preferable to diplomacy, Tehran is expressing receptiveness to reengaging in renewed conflict rather suffering a protracted ceasefire, recognised as a stalling tactic on the part of the US and siege warfare meant to grind down the country economically with worldwide consequences. Fuel prices continue to climb with airlines curtailing flight schedules and in one case for a budget-carrier, declaring bankruptcy. Despite the truce, Israel and Hezbollah trade blows in Lebanon as America fast-tracks more arms sales to Middle Eastern allies.

synchronoptica

one year ago: more adventures in the Tauber valley (with sychronopticæ), Radio Free Europe plus a bad-faith broker

fifteen years ago: antiquarian corner 

day sixty-two (13. 395)

As Trump argues that the war powers resolution up for debate in congress as the conflict enters its second month and sixty day deadline for re-authorisation from the legislature is an unconstitutional check on his powers, the US president elaborates and expounds on his call for removal and redeployment of US troops from bases in Germany, citing five thousand. NATO is seeking an explanation as warnings come for Spain and Italy for their reluctance.

Someone should remind him—or not—that it was Obama who closed the bases in Heidelberg, Würzburg, Bamberg and Schweinfurt. Trump also adds it is treasonous to suggest that America is not winning. US marine corps personnel associates complain of threatening text messages from the supposedly eliminated Iranian navy Meanwhile with tacit confirmation that the new Ayatollah was injured and disfigured in the attack at the beginning of the fighting that killed his extended family, the supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei reasserts his control, calling Iran a military power to be reckoned with in a Labour Day (also defiantly, Teachers’ Day) message. Despite the ceasefire, more die in Lebanon as collateral from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a return to the Tauber river valley (with synchronopticæ)

twelve years ago: more calendric conventions 

thirteen years ago: axis mundi plus a paperback library

fourteen years ago: US-German relations plus May Day vs Americanization Day 

sixteen years ago: returning from Istanbul 

day sixty-one (13. 393)

Following chancellor Merz’ criticism of the administration for its lack of strategy and saying it was being humiliated by Iran, Trump is mulling on reducing the number of the some thirty-six thousand US troops station in Germany, whilst still entertaining the prospect of leaving the NATO alliance entirely over its unwillingness to be drawn into the war with Iran. 

Oil prices rise to above $125 per barrel on news that naval blockade could continue for months with no renewed negotiations on the horizon and Tehran saying it can withstand the US economic pressure campaign. Growth in the EU is surprisingly resilliant and stronger than expected despite the conflict and supply chain disruptions. IDF attacks continue in southern Lebanon and Israel seizes a flotilla of ships carrying humanitarian aid destined for Gaza in international waters.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the Folkish Observer (with synchronopticæ) plus creating a data panopticon 

twelve years ago: US army updates allowable hairstyles plus the American Foreign Service

thirteen years ago: attuned cocktails plus new and novel punctuation

day fifty-seven (13. 384)

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi left the Pakistani capital to travel to Oman and Russia for separate as talks with the US were abruptly put on hold once again, the envoys told to cancel their trip to Islamabad, with Trump calling direct negotiations a waste of time, despite claims he received a better offer from Iran shortly before suspending the meeting. The American navy continues the blockade of the Persian Gulf and expands operations to detect and disable sea mines and wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. Despite the truce, Netanyahu is ordering an intensification on attacks of Hezbollah in the suburbs south of Beirut.  Nearly two months into the war, shipping and supply chains frayed beyond easy repair, national economies of all sizes are formulating contingency plans to brace for long term disruption and scarcity.  Trump adds that the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ will not deter his Middle East policy.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links worth the revisit (with synchronopticæ), crab allies plus Trump and Zelenskyy hold an impromptu meeting at the Pope’s funeral

 

twelve years ago: net neutrality 

 

thirteen years ago: natural dyes 

 

fourteen years ago: asteroid prospecting 

 

fifteen years ago: passport application process in US made more difficult 

day fifty-six (13. 380)

For some time we’ve been dealing with Schrödinger’s Strait, is it open or is it closed, and the on-again, off-again peace talks—which Tehran denies requesting and remains insistent that there will be no direct negotiations under duress, the blockade of the blockade. The Trump administration is sending Kushner and Witkoff without Vance to Pakistan, whilst the latest situation report from the US secretary of war says that limited transit is occurring through the Strait of Hormuz but at risk due to Iran’s threatening of vessels and the uncertainty of the sea mines, reiterating that American force are poised to resume their air campaign at a moment’s notice.  US secretary of state is drafting more sanctions against Iranian economic interest, and meanwhile, though other European leaders are not bought in and call the proposal premature, Chancellor Merz has suggested the easing of the overall embargo as a peace offering (see previous post). 

Switzerland reopens its embassy—which has served to represent American interests since 1979 when relations were broken off—in Tehran in anticipation of supporting renewed diplomatic initiatives. Despite there being no mechanism for giving demerits to members of the transatlantic defensive alliance, a leaked memorandum is exploring ways to kick Spain out of NATO for refusing to allow the US to use its bases to prosecute its war of choice and disparages other members generally. The memo also attacks the UK for its lack of enthusiasm and again brings up its decision on Diego Garcia. Claiming to have killed six terrorist fighters in southern Lebanon, Israel is accusing Hezbollah of sabotaging the fragile truce.

synchronoptica

one year ago: US products get a tariff label in Canadian markets (with synchronopticæ), celebrities in cars plus artificial intelligence literacy

fifteen years ago: post-war Trümmelbergen plus foot mittens

day fifty-six (13. 378)

Unprompted, Trump pledges not to use atomic weapons in Iran to end the war with no resolution in sight, unable to resume negotiations, whilst directing Israel to extend the ceasefire in Lebanon another three weeks to his indefinite but tenuous truce with Tehran, despite constant near breaches with the Revolutionary Guards taking tankers and the administration threatening to attack mobile gunboats “Caribbean style,” referring to the deadly attacks on supposed drug-runners off the Venezuelan coast. Trump clarified that the leadership shakeup in the navy was over the dismissed head of operations reluctance to revive domestic ship-building coinciding with the assessment it would take half a year to conduct mine-sweeping in the Strait of Hormuz to widen narrow safe corridor through the waterway. US secretary of state announced that America has no objections to the Iranian national team participating in the upcoming World Cup this summer. Global stock markets tumbled as hope for relief and stability evaporates. 

 

synchronoptica

one year ago: a classic from Del Shannon (with synchronopticæ) plus Goethe was here

 

thirteen years ago: the Wiesbadener Programme 

 

fourteen years ago: sustaining the hope of the Arab Spring 

 

sixteen years ago: exonyms and endonyms 

day fifty-five (13. 376)

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized two cargo ships attempting to bypass their control of the Strait of Hormuz, releasing cinematic footage of their capture—marking the first such detainments since the start of the war at the end of February. The White House did not consider the action to be a violation of the ceasefire, indefinitely extended due to the stalemate in arranging peace talks—the major sticking point being the US blockade of the Persian Gulf—as they were not American or Israeli flagged vessels. The administration expressed satisfaction with the maritime embargo as the US secretary of the navy abruptly resigned, effective immediately, without explanation. The acting under-secretary is Hung Cao, a MAGA loyalist who ran two unsuccessful campaigns for a seat in Virginia on an extreme Christian nationalist platform. Türkiye says that the prolonged war is significantly weakening the EU, as with Hungarian opposition removed with the defeat of Orban the ninety billion euro aid package for Ukraine is approved by the bloc. Lebanese officials are requesting an extension of their ceasefire with Israel.

synchronoptica

one year ago: Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? (with synchronopticæ), assorted links to revisit plus more on The Peculiar Manicule

thirteen years ago: the fight for digital liberties 

fourteen years ago: Saint George 

fifteen years ago: German Beer Day 

sixteen years ago: voluntary electronic surveillance 

day fifty-three (13. 371)

With the end of the two-week ceasefire approaching, confusion and mixed messages continue to emerge from the White House, with chief negotiator JD Vance’s whereabouts unknown, contradicting claims he was already en route to peace talks in Pakistan aimed to forestall a resumption in fighting with reports the vice president has remained in Washington, though now apparently scheduled to depart. It is unclear if any meeting will take place with Tehran insisting no negotiations will happen under duress and threat as the blockade continues to be enforced. Trump, confident and denying news of pressure to restore stability, insists, “the DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA,” referring to the agreement struck under the Obama administration in 2015. The spokesman of the Iranian paramilitary hints that the country still has unexercised options for the battlefield. Global stock markets are surrendering gains as optimism fades for a quick and tidy resolution and energy prices again rise. Clashes escalate in Gaza between the IDF and Hamas fighters.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the death of Pope Francis (with synchronopticæ)

thirteen years ago: GMO apples plus a pheromone party

fifteen years ago: energy-saving light bulbs 

sixteen years ago: the internet is for crying-wolf 

day fifty-two (13. 368)

The confusion and chaos of yesterday’s developments surely merited an addendum as well, but it was very hard to keep up or know what might happen next.  Following confusion on who might lead the US delegation in Pakistan, first saying that the vice president would not attend due to the short notice and security protocols of the Secret Service, it turns out that the same tired and ineffectual cast of Vance, Kushner and Witkoff are travelling back to Islamabad for peace talks on Monday, the Iranian foreign ministry announced that it would not participate in negotiations with the US over the American naval blockade of the country’s ports, calling the collective punishment a violation of the ceasefire and tantamount to a war crime and would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until a peace deal is reached. Escalating tensions further, US marines incepted and boarded the M/V Touska that tried to run the cordon. Despite the uncertainty of talks, cargo planes have landed in Pakistan to prepare for the arrival of delegates, which Tehran fears might be cover for a sneak attack.  Oil prices and other other commodities have surged. The death toll of joint Israeli and American airstrikes pass five thousand with neighbours in Beirut’s southern suburbs being demolished by bulldozers.   Despite clearing stating he did not wish to debate Donald Trump on the merits of just wars and wars of choice and further distract from his pastoral tour of Africa, JD Vance, a recent Catholic convert, still thought it necessary to lecture the Pope on religion, in keeping with his berating of US allies during the Munich Security Conference and every time he feels the opportunity presents itself.  Secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, amid shoehorning piety and holy wrath into military manoeuvrers, has labelled the dissenting press as Pharisees for being critical of their claims and questioning their lauded victories.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a return visit to the Hubertusburg (with synchronopticæ) 

thirteen years ago: chess derived vocabulary plus Berlin’s East Side Gallery under threat

fourteen years ago: German-American relations plus a salvaged garden 

fifteen years ago: calculating Easter 

sixteen years ago: travel disrupted due to an Icelandic volcanic eruption 

 

day fifty-one (13. 366)

With the rapidly degrading situation in the Middle East, yesterday merited a post-meridian post-script but we wanted to wait for an update to see how the renewed tensions played out, especially with pending peace talks and the weekend running out of runway. Israel accused Hezbollah of breaching the ceasefire in Beirut, including a deadly attacked on UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, created in 1978 to enforce withdrawal of Israelis from the country, its mandate renewed several times) peacekeepers and, meanwhile in Gaza, whose station has not improved, two UNICEF aid workers by IDF occupying forces. The Revolutionary Guard Corps has reasserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, closing it to commercial traffic with two India tankers taking light arms fire, in response to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports a day after declaring the waterway open. This move likely dashed the hopes of investors and bettors hoping to capitalise on the earlier positive turn for in the markets, besting the US administration at their game of stock manipulation and privileged information. Convening an emergency meeting in the White House situation room, Trump said that unless there was a significant breakthrough in peace negotiations—again not yet scheduled, Iranian deputy foreign minister Saaed Khatibyadeh insisting that a framework must be agreed upon, workable by both sides in the face of America’s unrealistic agenda, before talks can take place—he would resume airstrikes on Iran, bombardments already having killed over thirty-four hundred civilians. Trump went golfing afterwards.

day fifty (13. 362)

With echoes of Bush’s hubris in his premature announcement of “Mission accomplished” six weeks into the 2003 invasion of Iraq from the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, Trump’s triumphal crowing of victory seems as likely, stacked with dubious and unverified claims that all the details and sticking points have been ironed out in advance of peace talks hurriedly arranged to resume in Islamabad, to not be judged kindly by history. Ten tankers and a cruise ship have passed the strait. Peace in our time—another poisoned pronouncement—comes with the backdrop of Washington hosting the IMF spring summit, during a witheringly warm heatwave in the capital, possibly timed so for the optics, but delegates are not expressing gratitude for the status quo ante bellum or deliverance from villainy of the administration’s own making with others left to clean up his mess and economies in turmoil despite the the immediate horizon of the stock market, his inner-circle sure to make a hearty profit on Trump’s chaotic misadventure. Not only has the lustre worn thin for the fantasy kingdoms the gulf states created to diversify away from oil and attract investment and what little esteem that the world, especially allies held for America’s place in the global order eroded beyond repair—not necessarily a bad turn of events for the petronations to reaffirm that their only exports are regressive and ill-willed—but representatives fear for a worldwide recession from enduring aftereffects stemming from disruptions that are not easily undone by this precarious peace that’s at risk of falling apart at any moment.

synchronoptica

one year ago: court jesters (with synchronopticæ) 

fourteen years ago: consequences of tax delinquency 

fifteen years ago: achievement unlocked