Wednesday 15 August 2012

forever blowing bubbles

Shopping cart here has perhaps an overly simplistic view of the European financial landscape but does pose an interesting choice. I think matters are still relatively ratcheted down for a summer of tourists skimping on the souvenirs and a bit of muted enthusiasm for travel in general. I do think, however, there are some dangerous undercurrents that ripple and bellow in the belated season, like some strange mirage or fata morgana come too late. There are swirling simooms of dissonance that might prove to pull the eurozone asunder with their contradictory forces. Rather than structural weakness in underlying markets or an experiment disproven but rather because on the one hand, investors, seeking shelter, are inflating a bubble of Germany’s relatively robust economy, while simultaneously, supporting the isolation, quarantine of broader institutions by encouraging locally-funded initiatives.
Ripe for chaos, Germany as an anchor of the eurozone’s single currency fronts quite a bit of appeal, industry more sustainable than the husks of manu-facturing or market nervousness elsewhere, but that too could be oversold. Meanwhile, in order to contain potential losses should the euro be splintered into the Mark, franc, lira and peso again, activity is quietly being limited to sources in-country and involvement across borders, save berthing extra money for safe-keeping, which really benefits no one in the long term and damages the good-turn done for regional entrepreneurs and business at the same time. For example, an Italian multi-national corporation is shoring profits in Germany (perhaps buying up debt and real estate) and elsewhere while directing its affiliates in France to only solicit from French partners, as if the denomination was imminent I hope that this familiar tug-of-war does not escalate further.