Monday 11 July 2011

odious debt

As the economic sleight of hand for the US became only a delaying tactic and the States are galloping towards the legal debt ceiling (Schuldenobergrenze), debate over how to interpret the sibylline leaves of their constitution (which is not a technicality given its well-trod appeals and reductio) and ideological anchors that cannot be finessed or maneuvered around is just making the situation appear more and more dire. On a sub-national level, governments have been shutdown and there does not seem much urgency to restore it, nor an institutional life-line to reach resolution.
Meanwhile, back at the Ranch, German and EU officials are holding emergency meetings to in part address the framework and mechanisms that do not cause debt and deficit but rather the language and esteem used to talk about it. German finance ministers, among others, do not want the European Union threatened with dissolution over the opinions of the three dominant and American-based credit-rating agencies (Ratingagenturen). This cartel has been ceded too much power, Germany, argues and although these firms failed to avert disasters in the past, like internet and housing bubbles, can spook the markets and scandalize countries with a cross word, like with Greece and Portugal.
I think further that this exclusive group of Stygian oracles, beholden to the will of banks, certainly nudges a controlled-crash, an emergency-landing of debtor nations right into receivership. German is entertaining either promoting more competition and diversity of opinion by splitting up the big agencies, or establishing separate, regional entities to cover European and Asian sovereigns separately. The debt and credit-worthiness of individuals and countries are not measured in the same way--though perhaps they should be, either both strictly by the numbers or both on hope and promise and being a good neighbor--and maybe muting down doom among the general din might yield a credit score that's more meaningful, limned with those same dimensions of long-term aspiration, inheritance and legacy. One can still manage, however, to make any pronouncement portentous or pessimistic, depending on what one wants to hear.