day one-hundred six (13. 516)

After several tense hours when an IDF strike of the suburbs of Beirut looked to sabotage the entire negotiations—one Trump said shouldn’t have happened, “Let’s not blow it—Iran and the US reached a tentative peace settlement and approved the memorandum of understanding, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the American blockade of Iranian ports. Some twelve billion dollars of frozen Iranian assets will be released, with Europeans insisting that sanction relief must be conditioned on de-nuclearisation. The MOU is scheduled to be signed in Geneva on Friday and at this juncture, de-mining operations will start to clear the waterway to ensure safe passage—and whilst world leaders hailed the return to status quo ante bellum as positive, market reactions were less enthusiastic than expected, with energy prices not expected to come down soon and more time needed to restore lines of distribution and refining. It remains unclear whether Tehran will be able to impose tolls on transiting vessels. The issue of enriched uranium has been tabled for now and Israel was not party to the talks and has not yet responded to the outcome. Questions also remain with respect to Lebanon and the Israeli occupation at the southern border. Although calling it a grand deal, the United States is in a significantly weaker strategic position than when they started the war, failing to achieve objectives laid out for beginning the joint conflict in the first place and not substantively different than what was agreed to under the Obama administration in 2015 and uncertainty remains how enduring this peace might be.

day one hundred-four (13. 508)

Again losing control of the narrative and lashing out with chaotic and contradictory claims of progress towards achieving a peace accord, Trump pulls back on his threats to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure and seize petroleum processing facilities, offering that a deal could be reached by the weekend, after first decrying news out of Tehran that nothing had been agreed upon and then accusing them of spreading disinformation with a leaks of the draft as a sign of movement. Unconscionably, world energy markets hang on Trump’s every word, valuations lurching wildly despite the lack of positive news (he has promised a swift resolution no less than thirty-eight times since the ceasefire went into effect) and minting former first buddy and race-baiting Space Karen Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire with his rocket company going public. Neither Tehran nor Washington have disclosed what the terms of the agreement are—which seems to largely hinge on Israel’s actions in Lebanon, the aggressor excluded from the negotiations—but the administration is conservatively saying still that a deal is imminent, though to my mind the odds are not convincing.

day ninety-one (13. 473)

No deal emerges between Washington and Tehran after the praise-a-thon cabinet meeting in the Situation Room as the chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz continues to grind away on the global economy and energy supplies with attendant effects on tourism, world food security and investment opportunities for the gulf states. Though it seems that Trump’s only exit strategy is surrender and Republicans are warning him to spin whatever settlement is achieved as materially different and superior to the agreement that Obama reached and Trump torpedoed in his first term in office and tolerance for his destructive whims will not be enduring, it is yet baffling that the stupidity and hubris of a single individual can in a decentralised society where the power and relevance of nation states are subverted by corporations can cause so much chaos and influence without the cooperation or consent of traditional allies and partners. Bored with the messes he has made and little appetite for the politics of the upcoming midterms, Trump turns his attention to preening and MCing America’s birthday bash—a relatively harmless activity, despite the potential for propaganda.

days eighty-four and five (13. 460)

Insisting that he does not make bad deals, Trump has issued a non-update on the progress of peace negotiations with Iran, again calling out disparaging and doubtful reports to the contrary as unpatriotic and subversive.  Premature news hailed the settlement as a settled matter with an attendant and designed market rally, yet little has emerged from Pakistan’s intermediary shuttle diplomacy other than Trump trying to distinguish his concept of a deal as superior to what Tehran and Obama achieved. With the US still intransigent about unfreezing Iranian assets, reparations in exchange for a supposed longer moratorium on nuclear research and development—only amounting to a further sixty day extension to the ceasefire, something which no one wants.

day seventy-seven (13. 435)

Returning from Beijing with little apparent progress of AI integration, the question of support for Taiwan or Middle East peace, and still haunted or harnessed with the spectre of not being concerned about the worsening economic welfare of the American people in pursuit of a war only speciously connected with their security, Trump’s threats to recommence military operations has Iranians on edge—the chief outcome of the meeting in China being the reaffirmation that Trump is an agent of chaos and Xi heading the more competent, staid and predictable superpower. Meanwhile, the administration appears to make good on its announcement to withdraw American troops and mid-range missiles stationed in Europe, the redeployments already seemingly underway in Bavaria and the deployment of a brigade level combat unit to Poland halted as the threat of Russia on NATO’s eastern flank remains.

 

synchronoptica 

one year ago: a catalogue of non-synonymous phrases (with synchronopticæ) plus a baffling online oracle

fourteen years ago: Iceland’s Kitchenware Revolution

fifteen years ago: a Eurovision watch-party plus America loosing its competitive edge

day seventy-six (13. 432)

Taking a pragmatic approach to the region, China lobbies for a lasting ceasefire for the region and oppose the militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz as the Beijing trip concludes. Trump expresses more frustration with Tehran but seems to soften on demands regarding taking the stockpiles of enriched uranium, as the vote on the war powers act, which would require the president to withdraw forces from the Persian gulf, fails to pass the lower house of congress by a single vote. Taipei takes silence as the best possible outcome following private talks between Xi and the US president. The only clear winners were the entourage of business executives, including the family syndicate, who secured investment deals in microchips and aerospace, with no indication that China, which purchases ninety-percent of Iranian petroleum exports, would alter its arrangement. Twice this week, Venezuela has been referred to as America’s fifty-first state, with Caracas rather nonplussed at this announcement. Renewed negotiation between Israel and Lebannon will begin over the weekend, despite intense fighting between the IDF and Hezbollah.

synchronoptica

one year ago: pigeon bells (with synchronopticæ), the Volstead Act of 1925, assorted links to enjoy plus an ancient Roman mosaic

thirteen years ago: search results and word association 

fourteen years ago: bank bailouts plus continued opposition to increasing farm yields with GMOs

day seventy-five (13. 430)

Trump’s high-stakes meeting with Xi ends after two hours with the US president preparing to depart for home, Trump characterising their relationship as “better than ever” following bilateral talks. Concerns that America would abandon Taiwan appear to be unfounded with that sticking point papered over for now as the Chinese leader, citing the Thucydides Trap, used to describe US-China relations and the fear of being displaced by an emerging power, like the Greeks to the Spartans, should be avoided and work towards becoming “partners and not rivals.” It is unclear what concrete outcomes were achieved. Vice president Vance announces that progress has been made in negotiations with Iran but is yet unclear if Tehran’s concessions will satisfy Trump’s red lines on Iranian nuclear ambitions. Fifteen ships carrying humanitarian aid have been allowed to pass through the US naval blockade of the Persian gulf after a month of the sea embargo being in operation. The almost complete internet blackout in the country reaches its seventh fifth day as the government names Mohammad Reza Aref new cyberspace policy chief.  Continued attacks in Lebanon has reportedly increased support for Hezbollah.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the latest mashup from DJ Earworm (with synchronopticæ) plus night fishing for distant broadcasts 

thirteen years ago: the origins of the peace symbol,  the magic roundabout plus a collection of food and drink patron saints

day seventy-four (13. 425)

As figures for the cost of the war so far are revised modestly upwards, Trump tells reporters that the financial situation of the American people is not a factor in his strategy with Iran just before embarking on a trip to Beijing to meet with his Chinese counterpart to discuss trade and a durable peace plan for the Middle East (though downplaying the need for help from China and its influence in global affairs)—the projected two-hundred billion dollar price tag of Bush II’s Iraqi adventure quickly overshot the mark and ended up costing around five trillion and it was this two-decade long quagmire that many economists and historians attribute to the cause for the US loss of productivity and its competitive edge, ceding output and innovation that allowed for the ascendency of China. Oil is expected to remain over a hundred dollars per barrel for the remainder of the year with derivatives including fertiliser remaining prohibitively expensive for farmers. Trump also reaffirmed he is considering resuming major combat operations over Tehran’s unwillingness to accept the terms of the US deal. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been conducting covert, undeclared attacks on Iran, and Israel, keeping up its assault on Hezbollah elements in Lebanon, have reservations about the US negotiating position, worried that Trump will strike a bad deal with the Revolutionary Guard, as Pakistan’s role as intermediary faces criticism for strategic opportunism rather than being an honest broker in mediation by some.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the Episcopal church breaks with the US government over immigration policy (with synchronopticæ) plus Qatar gifts Trump an airplane

 

thirteen years ago: darlings of oblivion plus delving into ASMR 

 

fourteen years ago: Mothers’ Day greetings plus fruit of the vine

 

fifteen years ago: White House agrees to stop staging photo ops plus a hot air balloon lift off

 

sixteen years ago: German Fathers’ Day 

day seventy-two (13. 419)

After a week, Tehran issued a counteroffer to the US fourteen-point plan, more of a memorandum of understanding than an agreement or way forward that asked for Iranian surrender and a twenty-year moratorium on nuclear development, which calls for the recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and reparations for the war. Trump rejects the proposal as “totally unacceptable,” accusing the country of playing games. The fragile ceasefire that has held for a month shows more signs of fraying as exchanges of fire increase. Highlighting tensions between America and Israel in the direction of the war, Netanyahu is urging his country to wean itself off of US military aid and reduce reliance on funding. The internet blackout in Iran, in place since protests erupted before the war, remains in place, confounding reporting and sentiment from the frontlines, the frozen conflict offering little hope of deliverance for the people of Iran with reform or regime change and for the broader world as economies continue to suffer from the disruptions to energy supplies.

synchronoptica

one year ago: a concert for peace in Central Park (with synchronopticæ), assorted links to revisit, details in comics plus a banger from Roxette

thirteen years ago: flea market finds 

fifteen years ago: the wrong unit patch 

sixteen years ago: plugging an oil leak 

day sixty-nine (13. 410)

Despite and exchange of fire between Iranian assets and US warship—and more attacks on Emirati territory—rattling world markets as hope evaporates for a quick resolution and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump insists that the ceasefire is holding, “Yeah, it is. They trifled with us today. We blew them away. They trifled. I call that a trifle.” The Revolutionary Guard set up a new government agency with the charter to administer toll and vet vessels transiting through the vital waterway, fifteen hundred ships remain stranded in the gulf. Iran further reports of drone interception near the city of Bandar Abbas and the strait island of Qeshm. Lebanon and Israel have scheduled a new round of peace negotiations, whilst Tehran has yet to commit to or comment on further talks. US secretary of state Marco Rubio meets with the Pope at the Vatican to discuss a “durable” deal to iron out differences between the American president and pontiff.

synchronoptica

one year ago: Germany observes the eightieth anniversary of Victory in Europe day (with synchronopticæ), habemus papam plus assorted links worth the revisit 

thirteen years ago: the AKK Conflict between Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz plus the Schlachthof of Wiesbaden

fourteen years ago: austerity imposed in Greece plus colony collapse

fifteen years ago: wagging the dog plus houseplants in bloom

the house of mouse (13. 404)

Via Messy Nessy Chic, we are directed towards this illustrated strategic plan and sales pitch (click to embiggen) that Walt Disney presented to investors in 1957 showing revenue streams and how the company would work just as the empire was forming, Disneyland opening just two years prior, financed in part by syndicated anthology series, the Mickey Mouse Club—the variety show for children also a talent pool for the studio’s live-action stars, and a mini-series on frontiersman Davy Crockett with a tie-in ballad becoming a best-selling record. The entire juggernaut of merchandising (coonskin caps included) was complete and unprecedented, becoming firmly ensconced in American and later worldwide culture.

7x7 (13. 402)

national character: photographer John Sanderson captures shifting social demographics in the US—via Nag on the Lake  

c-64: chiptune Depeche Mode—see previously  

db: revisiting the measurement of loudness and the decibel scale, meant to replace the older unit of miles of standard cable to measure loss of fidelity—via Quantum of Sollazzo  

filmaffisch: early to mid-century movie posters by prolific graphic artist Eric Rohman  

stranded assets: the economic concept of demand destruction, emerging from peak oil and pivot to energy alternatives  

beast in the basement: the musical stylings of organist Leon Berry, who also recorded a cover version of “Misirlou”  

blind patriotism: Banksy (previously) confirms that guerrilla installation in central London is his work

day sixty-four (13. 399)

As Iranian maritime authorities announce a list of enemy flagged ships, including Israel, that will never be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the US navy extends the offer again to escort tankers, presumably whilst conducting mine-sweeping operations to open up an in-going and an out-going sealane. Though not preferable to diplomacy, Tehran is expressing receptiveness to reengaging in renewed conflict rather suffering a protracted ceasefire, recognised as a stalling tactic on the part of the US and siege warfare meant to grind down the country economically with worldwide consequences. Fuel prices continue to climb with airlines curtailing flight schedules and in one case for a budget-carrier, declaring bankruptcy. Despite the truce, Israel and Hezbollah trade blows in Lebanon as America fast-tracks more arms sales to Middle Eastern allies.

synchronoptica

one year ago: more adventures in the Tauber valley (with sychronopticæ), Radio Free Europe plus a bad-faith broker

fifteen years ago: antiquarian corner 

day sixty-one (13. 393)

Following chancellor Merz’ criticism of the administration for its lack of strategy and saying it was being humiliated by Iran, Trump is mulling on reducing the number of the some thirty-six thousand US troops station in Germany, whilst still entertaining the prospect of leaving the NATO alliance entirely over its unwillingness to be drawn into the war with Iran. 

Oil prices rise to above $125 per barrel on news that naval blockade could continue for months with no renewed negotiations on the horizon and Tehran saying it can withstand the US economic pressure campaign. Growth in the EU is surprisingly resilliant and stronger than expected despite the conflict and supply chain disruptions. IDF attacks continue in southern Lebanon and Israel seizes a flotilla of ships carrying humanitarian aid destined for Gaza in international waters.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the Folkish Observer (with synchronopticæ) plus creating a data panopticon 

twelve years ago: US army updates allowable hairstyles plus the American Foreign Service

thirteen years ago: attuned cocktails plus new and novel punctuation

day sixty (13. 391)

The United Arab Emirates announces it will quit OPEC in order to increase exports, seen as a victory by some for Trump who opposes the cartel’s caps on production and price controls. Although the conflict remains essentially frozen and tensions still remain high among allies, during a state visit to the US, King Charles delivered a masterful address to a joint-session of congress in the semiquinncentennial year of the American declaration of independence, apolitical but a model of using soft power to heal rifts. Neighbouring gulf states hold a summit in Riyadh and issue a statement that Tehran must make serious efforts to rebuild confidence and trust following “treacherous” attacks on the region. Russia reiterates financial and materiel support for Iran, as Trump claims that the country is on the verge of collapse and eager to submit to a deal under America’s terms, whilst threatening new sanctions on China for refining Iranian crude oil exports and goes after Iran’s network of shadow banking.

synchronoptica

one year ago: droodles (with synchronopticæ), Trump’s first hundred days plus more e-moluments for the Trump family syndicate

twelve years ago: European far-right parties affinity for Moscow 

thirteen years ago: Iceland’s Jedi party 

fourteen years ago: an intemperate island plus fortress London

fifteen years ago: macroeconomics 

seventeen years ago: German traffic signs 

day fifty-seven (13. 384)

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi left the Pakistani capital to travel to Oman and Russia for separate as talks with the US were abruptly put on hold once again, the envoys told to cancel their trip to Islamabad, with Trump calling direct negotiations a waste of time, despite claims he received a better offer from Iran shortly before suspending the meeting. The American navy continues the blockade of the Persian Gulf and expands operations to detect and disable sea mines and wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. Despite the truce, Netanyahu is ordering an intensification on attacks of Hezbollah in the suburbs south of Beirut.  Nearly two months into the war, shipping and supply chains frayed beyond easy repair, national economies of all sizes are formulating contingency plans to brace for long term disruption and scarcity.  Trump adds that the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ will not deter his Middle East policy.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links worth the revisit (with synchronopticæ), crab allies plus Trump and Zelenskyy hold an impromptu meeting at the Pope’s funeral

 

twelve years ago: net neutrality 

 

thirteen years ago: natural dyes 

 

fourteen years ago: asteroid prospecting 

 

fifteen years ago: passport application process in US made more difficult 

6x6 (13. 377)

mail-order magic: cheaper printing techniques and a robust postal system helped occultism to flourish in the United States at the turn of the last century—and still thrives  

no contest: sentences delivered in bear-suit insurance fraud case 

floating currency: the US$ index is a deceptive relic  

garum: the fascinating history of fish sauce—via MetaFilter  

van helsing: the curious case of Old Thiess and the benevolent werewolves of Livonia  

domestics: a peek inside the world’s first servant robot mail order startup

day fifty-three (13. 371)

With the end of the two-week ceasefire approaching, confusion and mixed messages continue to emerge from the White House, with chief negotiator JD Vance’s whereabouts unknown, contradicting claims he was already en route to peace talks in Pakistan aimed to forestall a resumption in fighting with reports the vice president has remained in Washington, though now apparently scheduled to depart. It is unclear if any meeting will take place with Tehran insisting no negotiations will happen under duress and threat as the blockade continues to be enforced. Trump, confident and denying news of pressure to restore stability, insists, “the DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA,” referring to the agreement struck under the Obama administration in 2015. The spokesman of the Iranian paramilitary hints that the country still has unexercised options for the battlefield. Global stock markets are surrendering gains as optimism fades for a quick and tidy resolution and energy prices again rise. Clashes escalate in Gaza between the IDF and Hamas fighters.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the death of Pope Francis (with synchronopticæ)

thirteen years ago: GMO apples plus a pheromone party

fifteen years ago: energy-saving light bulbs 

sixteen years ago: the internet is for crying-wolf 

day fifty-one (13. 366)

With the rapidly degrading situation in the Middle East, yesterday merited a post-meridian post-script but we wanted to wait for an update to see how the renewed tensions played out, especially with pending peace talks and the weekend running out of runway. Israel accused Hezbollah of breaching the ceasefire in Beirut, including a deadly attacked on UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, created in 1978 to enforce withdrawal of Israelis from the country, its mandate renewed several times) peacekeepers and, meanwhile in Gaza, whose station has not improved, two UNICEF aid workers by IDF occupying forces. The Revolutionary Guard Corps has reasserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, closing it to commercial traffic with two India tankers taking light arms fire, in response to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports a day after declaring the waterway open. This move likely dashed the hopes of investors and bettors hoping to capitalise on the earlier positive turn for in the markets, besting the US administration at their game of stock manipulation and privileged information. Convening an emergency meeting in the White House situation room, Trump said that unless there was a significant breakthrough in peace negotiations—again not yet scheduled, Iranian deputy foreign minister Saaed Khatibyadeh insisting that a framework must be agreed upon, workable by both sides in the face of America’s unrealistic agenda, before talks can take place—he would resume airstrikes on Iran, bombardments already having killed over thirty-four hundred civilians. Trump went golfing afterwards.

day fifty (13. 362)

With echoes of Bush’s hubris in his premature announcement of “Mission accomplished” six weeks into the 2003 invasion of Iraq from the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, Trump’s triumphal crowing of victory seems as likely, stacked with dubious and unverified claims that all the details and sticking points have been ironed out in advance of peace talks hurriedly arranged to resume in Islamabad, to not be judged kindly by history. Ten tankers and a cruise ship have passed the strait. Peace in our time—another poisoned pronouncement—comes with the backdrop of Washington hosting the IMF spring summit, during a witheringly warm heatwave in the capital, possibly timed so for the optics, but delegates are not expressing gratitude for the status quo ante bellum or deliverance from villainy of the administration’s own making with others left to clean up his mess and economies in turmoil despite the the immediate horizon of the stock market, his inner-circle sure to make a hearty profit on Trump’s chaotic misadventure. Not only has the lustre worn thin for the fantasy kingdoms the gulf states created to diversify away from oil and attract investment and what little esteem that the world, especially allies held for America’s place in the global order eroded beyond repair—not necessarily a bad turn of events for the petronations to reaffirm that their only exports are regressive and ill-willed—but representatives fear for a worldwide recession from enduring aftereffects stemming from disruptions that are not easily undone by this precarious peace that’s at risk of falling apart at any moment.

synchronoptica

one year ago: court jesters (with synchronopticæ) 

fourteen years ago: consequences of tax delinquency 

fifteen years ago: achievement unlocked