day one-hundred forty-five (13. 664)

Following the disclosure by Zelenskyy that Russia is providing satellite telemetry to the Iranians to target US bases in the Middle East, Trump announces that he will confront Putin directly—something we thought had been verified or at least suspect from the start of the war. Responding to criticisms regarding under-reporting of American casualties and the extent of damage done to installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, the Pentagon revises upwards its official figures. Duelling blockades in the Strait of Hormuz continue with ships being turned back from the Persian gulf and Iranian ports. Calling for the release of political prisoners, the US state department strongly condemns continued executions of protesters. As bombing and demolition continue in southern Lebanon, Trump and Netanyahu are scheduled to meet to discuss extracting themselves from the war in Iran—neither having the appetite for prolonged negotiations.

day one-hundred forty-four (13. 660)

After showing his cards by pushing for an extension of the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding told that the world was four weeks away from economic collapse due to energy shocks, Trump also over-shares his decision to scale back strikes, driven by critically low munition supplies. Touting the pause as a space for diplomacy, Iran has also halted retaliatory attacks on Gulf allies hosting US bases. During the hostage crisis, Tehran waited out the Carter administration for four-hundred forty-four days to time their release with Reagan’s inauguration. Separately, Iran and Oman have continued negotiations about management of the Strait of Hormuz and the Supreme Leader insists that Lebanese territorial integrity must be included in any future negotiations with Washington. Netanyahu, under considerable political pressure to show his campaigns against Iran and Hezbollah have been effective as he is up for reelection and has been critical of the US willingness to try to make a deal, is to meet with Trump on Tuesday.

day one-hundred forty (13. 647)

Kyiv and Washington reach a bilateral defence agreement allowing the export of Ukrainian drone technology to the US. American legislators withhold additional funding for hugely unpopular and illegal war in Iran as worldwide alerts go out for Americans aboard and concerns grow over cyber sabotage. Washington and Riyadh sign a nuclear partnership deal to build the kingdom’s energy infrastructure (to include domestic enrichment) with US contracts amid the escalating conflict with Tehran. Yemen’s Ansar Allah—also known as the Houthis—fire on ships transiting from the Red Sea via the Bab al-Mandab strait, as the Hormuz remains closed, Trump promising that for every shot fired at a tanker, the US will bomb a bridge or power plant, to include those “located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.”

day one-hundred thirty-nine (13. 644)

Saying that the US is not yet done with air strikes on Iran, Trump condemns government officials as “savages” after the latest execution of political protestors. Tehran warns Bulgaria against allowing America to use its bases for staging. US forces have their sites set on Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang), a secretive bunker believed to house centrifuges near the Natanz nuclear facility, destroyed in last summers campaign. Several tankers headed to Saudi ports made u-turns in the Red Sea after warnings from the Houthis. Lebanon hails the US-brokered agreement with Israel but clashes with Hezbollah still continue with no timeframe for IDF to withdraw from southern Beirut. Secretary of war Hegseth gives a rather low estimate for the costs of the Iranian conflict at thirty eight billion as he requests additional funding from the senate.

day one-hundred thirty-eight (13. 641)

Middle Eastern nations are on high alert has hostilities continue to flare, the Revolutionary Guard declaring that Iran is in a state of all out war as US forces strike the southern cities of Shiraz and Tabriz and western Azerbaijan province. Sirens blare across Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar as more ballistics fall. Trump repeats his vow that the deaths of service members will be avenged many times over with secretary of state Rubio accusing Iran, rather obviously, of using its control of the Hormuz as “leverage against the world” whilst calling on other countries to share the burden of protecting global shipping. US fighter jets based in Germany are to be stationed at Israeli air force stations for safety. New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani speculates on the possibility of enforcing a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court—of which the US is not a signatory—should Netanyahu visit for a UN summit in September to the outrage of the American president, saying that the Israeli prime minister will in “no way, shape or form be arrested” and extradited. After a Riyadh-led occupation of the airport of the Yemeni capital of Sanaa to prevent Iran from sending aid to the rebels, the Houthi declare access to the Red Sea cut off to Saudi Arabia. US peacekeeping operations begin in southern Lebanese “pilot zones” as part of the trilateral peace agreement with Tel Aviv. Hamas names new political bureau chief, Khalil al-Hayya.

day one-hundred twenty-six (13. 596)

After granting Iran a week off out of respect for the funeral of the late Supreme Leader, Trump renews his threats to “finish the job” militarily if Tehran does not agree to a deal under US terms. A fleet of Japanese flagged tankers leave the Persian gulf after being stranded for months, whilst ships come under fire cleaving close to the Omani coast. Netanyahu claims Christian villages in southern Lebanon have asked to be annexed by Israel to protect them from Hezbollah. Zelenskyy reportedly will not be allowed to speak during the NATO summit. During a play-off, the American president intervenes to pressure FIFA officials to reconsider a penalty imposed against one of the star players of team USA and reverse the referee’s red card—forever earning the game an asterisk (see also) in the history books.

day one-hundred nineteen (13. 569)

The US and Iran agree to halt tit-for-tat attacks once again (American central command refers to it as “kinetic activity”) and resume negotiations, both sides standing down and allowing free transit—in coordination with Tehran for safety’s sake. The IDF destroys a tunnel in southern Beirut it claims was used by Hezbollah for munitions storage just hours after a truce was called in Washington between Israel and Lebanon. Eliminated from the next heat, Iran’s national football team heads home. Russia fuel supply troubles have knock-on effects for Central Asia, exposing their dependence on Moscow. Strikes at the Pakistani-Afghan border intensify.

day one-hundred eighteen (13. 566)

For the second night in a row, US forces have struck multiple targets in Iran for Tehran’s “aggression” against commercial shipping as the fragile ceasefire continues to fray—following on with a threat to wipe out the Islamic Republic. The Revolutionary Guard say that further violations of the truce will bring diplomatic talks to a halt as religious hardliners split on settlement negotiations. Bahrain is attacked by drones in response. Hezbollah rejects the ceasefire arrangement brokered by Washington between Israel and Lebanon. The draft resolution of Trump’s Board of Peace seeks sweeping immunity to block members and contractors from potential prosecution for work in “rebuilding” Gaza and allowing them to appropriate public property free of charge and with no oversight. Rocked by a wave of attacks that have resulted in fuel shortages, Moscow is building on new air defence complex on the grounds of Putin’s daughter’s intellectual development foundation just outside the capital.

day one-hundred seventeen (13. 561)

US strikes Iranian military facilities after an apparent drone attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz caused the UN to abandon evacuation efforts—Tehran and Washington establish a direct line of communication, a red phone to prevent incidents that could potentially escalate into military conflict. Trump characterised the victories of democratic socialists supported by New York mayor Zohran Mamdani as a win for “ruthless communism” after sabotaging a rare bipartisan bill aimed at addressing the housing crisis at the last second by refusing to attend a signing ceremony after the stage had been set—calling the proposal very “Elizabeth ‘Pocahontas’ Warren-centric” and affordability was a low priority compared with his voter-suppression legislation he is insisting congress pass, potentially further alienating himself and the GOP from the issues faced by the American public. Lebanon, Israel and the US agree on a trilateral framework to stop the violence at the border as talks continue. Saudi Arabia restarts refinery operations after a four-month pause.

day one-hundred sixteen (13. 557)

Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire negotiations in Washington are extended. FIFA allows Pride flags for Iran-Egypt match in Seattle despite objections from national football federations. Trump claims that unfrozen Iranian funds will be used to buy US crop staples, saying the country is experiencing a famine and the deal will be mutually beneficial. Tehran denies any arrangement to purchase US agricultural products.  The UN Maritime agency pauses evacuation efforts after a vessel came under attack in the Gulf of Oman. Oil prices—though the affect does not immediately translate to the petrol pump—have fallen to pre-war levels.

day one-hundred fifteen (13. 554)

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard rejects the proposed route by its Omani partners through the Strait of Hormuz, saying that safe passage can only be guaranteed for the lanes issued by Tehran and any deviation would pose a risk to traffic. The Department of War requests an addition eighty-eight billion dollars in funding related to the Iran conflict and the Ebola outbreak in Africa. Meeting with NATO secretary-general Rutte, Trump boasts that Iran has conceded to everything that he has asked for and revived old grievances with allies, ahead of the annual summit to be hosted in Ankara, which the US president plans to attend. IDF insists it will remain in Lebanon, potentially undermining the peace process.

day one-hundred thirteen (13. 543)

Keir Starmer tenders his resignation as prime minister and leader of Labour, following a series of political crises and rifts internal to the party over economic and immigration policy and election strategy after the success of conservative Reform UK in the general election. Starmer is expected to be replaced by Andy Burnham before the end of parliament’s summer recess. The Iran delegation leave Switzerland after a day of productive talks, with a sixty day waiver on oil sanctions granted and agreeing with the US in principle to a roadmap for peace, allowing the IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities. With secretary of state, Rubio headed to the region to allay security fears, it remains unclear what US vice president Vance and special envoy Witkoff and Kushner have accomplished, the president’s son-in-law preoccupied with massive demonstrations in Albania over a planned property development deal that would damage fragile swampland and corruption in the government that acquiesced to this project in the first place. Sticking-points regarding Iranian restitution and possible conditions being placed on unfrozen assets also remain—though the negotiations have settled on an island of optimism that a final peace settlement could be in place by February.

day one-hundred twelve (13. 541)

Despite yesterday’s indefinite postponement and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz over deadly strikes in Lebanon (American forces in the region dispute this claim saying ship traffic continues to flow), diplomatic delegations scrambled to reach Lucerne to begin formal talks. Trump publically admits that the US is is four-weeks away from an even more debilitating oil shock. The US team consisting of the same ineffectual members, Vance, Witkoff and Kushner, dispatched in a succession of negotiations that quickly spiralled into war is in attendance. Israel announced it refuses to withdraw from its security zone south of Beirut, neither side directly represented in the talks. Discussions are expected to carry on for days with side sessions addressing maritime security, but the main focus is on the sticking points of deescalation and Iran’s nuclear programme—the proposal presently being to not allow inspectors and to dilute the existing stockpile to well below weapon-grade. Fuel sales are suspended in Crimea after a wave of attacks by Ukraine on the illegally annexed territory.

addendum (13. 535)

Underwriter Lloyd’s of London intelligencer branch that tracks maritime shipping data reports that Tehran’s and Muscat’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority are mandating that vessels transiting the Hormuz take out special coverage through government approved providers. This insurance requirement is regarded as a prelude to tolls, which is probably the least worst thing to come out of the stultifyingly bad grand deal of Trump’s— a nominal fee factored into the cost of doing business that would be passed along to the consumer but a tax we think anyone would happily pay in exchange that Trump and his minions don’t embark on more empire-building adventures with the tolerance, forethought and follow-through worse than a package tourist. Despite the ceasefire announced yesterday between Hezbollah and the IDF, strikes continue with dozens more dead in southern Beirut, pressuring Iran to take action and respond to what hardliners are calling a blatant violation of the MOU with Washington unable to reign in Israel, whose minister of national security declared that “all of Lebanon must burn.” Direct negotiations stalled with the US, Pakistani interior minister Mohsin Naqvi returns to Tehran for meetings with high level officials.

day one-hundred ten (13. 531)

After increasingly deadly clashes in the wake of the US-Iranian truce that threatened to sabotage the peace settlement before talks (postponed with the US vice president delaying his departure to Switzerland, despite proclaiming that the sixty-day period for negotiations had started) could even begin, Hezbollah and the IDF declare a ceasefire. The term made increasingly Orwellian in practise, we will see if it plays out like the ceasefire arrangement in Gaza, the opposite of an armistice that’s seen a thousand Palestinian deaths and the population squeezed into a smaller and smaller area as Israel occupation expands. Ukrainian forces launch a retaliatory drone attack on Moscow, the largest yet during the four year conflict, aim to bring the realities of war to the home-front for the Russian people. Trump, messy drama queen that he is, scripts his own Italian soap-opera, claiming that Giorgia Meloni begged him for a picture together on the sidelines of the G7 summit. The prime minister called out his made up story and cancelled a trip to America scheduled for her foreign minister. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz surges, from a trickle to approaching a quarter of pre-war crossings. The MOU stipulates that Iran will keep the waterway open to all for a thirty-day period in order to clear the backlog of ships stranded, but leaves open the possibility to impose tolls or restrict certain vessels flying under the flag of enemies in the future. Quite a few other significant concessions to Tehran are emerging, amplified by Trump’s attempts to defend his grand deal—claiming without him Israel wouldn’t exist and he saved the world economy from sliding into a depression. The Supreme Leader says the settlement was reached out of desperation and panic in Washington.

day one-hundred nine (13. 528)

Israel cuts diplomatic ties with the EU after a report is published equating Israeli settlement policy with apartheid South Africa over its illegal practise of home building in the West Bank and continued demolition in Gaza and Lebanon. Amid dissatisfaction with Trump’s grand deal with Tehran, secretary of war Hegseth threatens renewed strikes if Iran does not uphold its end of the bargain, which seemingly concedes more than it was asking for, leaving room for negotiation on its arsenal of ballistic missiles and nuclear programmes. According to Pakistani intermediaries, the formal signing ceremony in Lucerne is canceled due to Trump’s and Pezeshkian’s digital accord, the Supreme Leader offering he had authorised the agreement despite reservations after assurances that Iran’s interests would be safeguarded, stating that the position of the enemy were not necessarily acceptable. US vice president Vance, whom my or may not travel to Switzerland over the weekend to begin negotiations, states that the sixty-day ceasefire begins now, defending the settlement as in the best interest of the American people, as Trump calls sceptics either jealous or stupid.

day one-hundred eight (13. 525)

As the G7 summit concludes, Trump lashed out at a media reports of the publication of a leaked copy of the MOU furnished by CNN—telling world leaders that Obama bribed his way to secure the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the 2015 plan these governments supported and were not pleased with the unilateral and ultimately violent withdrawal from) in order to deflect from the fourteen-point memo’s commitment for restitution and relief from sanctions, squandering whatever political capital and goodwill he had accrued by retreating from the war he started, spending unaccounted billions and causing the death of thousands to not achieve the objectives cited for the conflict—chiefly preventing Iran from building atomic weapons, which it was not doing in the first place but definitely sees the need for now. Rather than apologising or offering thanks to allies and mediators for their patience and suffering, Trump only strangely A much worse and more brittle settlement than the JCPOA, the White House had pledged to release the details prior to Friday’s signing ceremony at the Bürgenstock Resort above Lake Lucerne—the Qatari-owned property chosen for its remoteness—but we are unlikely now to get much of a preview, if privy to the terms at all, I thought though the leak prompted a partial read-out. Threatening to return to bombing if Tehran backslides, Trump admonished them to “behave,” repeating a line from early failed negotiations headed by the US vice president, “if it works out, I’m going to take the credit—if not, I am blaming JD,” Trump suggests he might he stick around to sign himself with Iranian counterpart Pezeshkian (update: which they did). Meanwhile, Hezbollah and the IDF continue to clash in Beirut (Netanyahu says he has not seen the document and has not asked); the IAEA approaches Kazakstan to potentially store Iran’s supply of enriched uranium as negotiations continue, though Iran now pledges to destroy its stockpiles through dilution—this truce only extends the ceasefire for sixty days—and the first tankers leave Iranian ports, the US blockade suspended.

day one-hundred eight (13. 522)

As politicians and the press debate the merits and durability of Trump’s grand deal with Tehran (the administration hinting it will publish the terms of the MOU ahead of the formal signing ceremony), a Russian frigate, known to escort its shadow fleet of oil tankers through the Channel, fired warning shots at a pleasure yacht off the Island of Wight. The G7 vows for new sanctions against Russia amid optimism for peace in Ukraine. Elon Musk threatens to sue German public broadcaster ZDF for its reporting on how he is stoking anti-immigrant sentiment in Belfast. Scepticism mounts—everyone is angry and dissatisfied for different but overlapping reasons—over the peace plan with Iran insisting that any accord is contingent on IDF withdrawal from Lebanon—the rift between Washington and Tel Aviv apparently widening as Trump criticises Netanyahu and says that Syria would do a better job in extracting Hezbollah without killing everyone else in the process. Destruction in Beirut persists but many displaced Lebanese are trying to return home.

day one-hundred seven (13. 519)

Far from settled or over with the MOU digitally signed, unless America is accepting their defeat in this adventure, the chronology continues. With no force behind it, the grand deal is akin to an empty table of contents, waiting to be limned by a negotiation process that will prove thornier than the talks—or lack of dialogue—that brought us to this juncture. The terms, not fully disclosed to the public, provides a cessation of strikes in Lebanon but provides no timeline for IDFs withdrawal from southern Beirut. The Israeli government, with Netanyahu also using the opportunity to announce his reelection campaign, has said it will not leave its security zones established in Lebanon, Syria or Gaza, and the country’s defence ministry denounced the draft agreement as not only bad for Israel but for bad for the entire world, accusing US special envoys Kushner and Witkoff of driving a wedge between Washington and Tel Aviv. In addition to sanction relief, apparently with no strings attached though Trump says otherwise—saying a lot things—with its own funds unfrozen, the US tax payers will be remitting some three-hundred billion dollars in reparations under the aegis of an Iranian freedom fund, without reform or the promised regime change nor appropriating oil revenues to repair gulf nation energy infrastructure damaged in the war, with monitoring of its nuclear programme and the matter of its stockpile of enriched uranium deferred for negotiations yet to come. The Strait of Hormuz will supposedly be open to all traffic without restriction as well as Iranian ports—tensions between India and the US flaring over the refusal to apologise for attacking an Indian tanker accused of violating the US naval blockade—on Friday following the formal signing ceremony, with all parties uphold their commitments. Blasts were heard in the area of Qeshm island and the strait.

day one-hundred six (13. 516)

After several tense hours when an IDF strike of the suburbs of Beirut looked to sabotage the entire negotiations—one Trump said shouldn’t have happened, “Let’s not blow it—Iran and the US reached a tentative peace settlement and approved the memorandum of understanding, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the American blockade of Iranian ports. Some twelve billion dollars of frozen Iranian assets will be released, with Europeans insisting that sanction relief must be conditioned on de-nuclearisation. The MOU is scheduled to be signed in Geneva on Friday and at this juncture, de-mining operations will start to clear the waterway to ensure safe passage—and whilst world leaders hailed the return to status quo ante bellum as positive, market reactions were less enthusiastic than expected, with energy prices not expected to come down soon and more time needed to restore lines of distribution and refining. It remains unclear whether Tehran will be able to impose tolls on transiting vessels. The issue of enriched uranium has been tabled for now and Israel was not party to the talks and has not yet responded to the outcome. Questions also remain with respect to Lebanon and the Israeli occupation at the southern border. Although calling it a grand deal, the United States is in a significantly weaker strategic position than when they started the war, failing to achieve objectives laid out for beginning the joint conflict in the first place and not substantively different than what was agreed to under the Obama administration in 2015 and uncertainty remains how enduring this peace might be.