day two hundred forty six (13. 960)

After meeting with the Qatari prime minister, Trump declares Iran war effectively over militarily as Tehran calls for Washington to surrender to its terms. More US aircraft are evacuated from a second base in the UK. The American president and secretary of state Rubio defend Hegseth and momentum for impeachment builds. Nvidia shareholders sue CEO Jensen Huang over honeypot ties to Chinese spy as AI stocks continue their sell-off. Zelenskyy, Trump and Putin schedule a meeting in Abu Dhabi.

day two hundred forty four (13. 956)

The US announces plans to expand its month long naval blockade of Iranian ports to overland supply routes called Task Force Iron Gate. Qatari mediators reach a compromise with Iran, allowing inspection of nuclear facilities in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The COP31 climate summit begins in Antalya, informed by the prospect of demand destruction for petroleum and America’s retreat from commitments. Israeli president Herzog tasks Gadi Eisenkot with the first round of forming a government, seen to possibly heal rifts with US and the West relations as public opposition mounts in the UK and Germany over sales of arms and demolition equipment—with the American suspension of military aid, which apparently Tel Aviv saying that they didn’t need it and Trump eliminating the talking point, conversely to stopping the vote on comprehensive immigration going through during his interregnum so as not to deprive the GOP of a campaign position. France braces for fresh waves of protests, Mouvement des gilets jaunes joining student demonstrations.

day two hundred forty two (13. 953)

Qatari Sheikh Al Thani urges Tehran and Washington to reach a peace deal immediately and not wait for the perfect moment as more US ballistics strike Qeshm island. Following Israel’s inconclusive elections, president Isaac Herzog faces decision on which camp gets to make the opening attempt to form a government, Netanyahu or opposition leader Eisenkot. The unconvincing narrative on the Iran war costing his party control of congress, Trump claims that the military intervention saved Israel from imminent destruction. Ghoul Stephen Miller replaces departing Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff. Torrential rains flood displaced persons camps in Gaza. Saudi forces narrowly intercept a Houthi launched cruise missile over Riyadh. De-sanctioned diesel tankers from Russia have been diverted and are apparently no longer heading to US ports and are perhaps going to Havana to break the American embargo on the fuel-starved county. Moscow supplies Iran with ninety helicopter missile launchers. Buoyed up solely by irrational exuberance over Trump’s Super Intelligence, a major sell-off in the markets of AI stock sublimates trillions in valuations as tech companies foresee more regulations under a Democratic government in the US. A spate of bomb threats disrupt flights across Europe.

day two hundred thirty six (13. 936)

Ukrainian drones hit Russian Kstovo crude oil refinery, setting it ablaze, the third in as many days. Iranian foreign ministry reports that talks are ongoing with Qatari mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the US cooperates, whilst Trump says negotiations are going fine and claims that he is not in much of a hurry to make a deal. The Revolutionary Guard signals its readiness to take on any offensive scenario—saying that even limited strikes risk escalation. Thousands rally in Tel Aviv urging the opposition party of Gadi Eisenkot to relent and form a coalition government with Arab parties in order to remove Netanyahu from power. Though Trump says there’s no rush to reach a settlement, renewed fighting with Tehran could be severely hampered with the loss of Israeli forces as well as by Republican defectors if GOP losses in the races cause them to split with the American president before the new congress is called into session. Palestinian farmers struggle to protect their olive harvest amid continuing attacks by settlers in the West Bank. Isolated incidents of violence and looting mar the mostly peaceful Gen Z protests across Germany.

day two hundred thirty three (13. 925)

With the election results inconclusive and neither of the two major party blocs securing a controlling majority, Knesset president Isaac Herzog urges no new vote. IDF shells eastern Gaza City and Deir Mimas in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah rejects Israeli-brokered framework for peace. Arab political parties make significant gains but both Netanyahu and opposition leader Eisenkot refuse to work with them, despite their participation being necessary to form a coalition government. Houthi strikes hit the airport in Aden and the largest Saudi refinery complex in Ras Tanura. Putin gives public praise to Elon Musk as the SpaceX CEO assists with Russia’s Rassvet constellation of satellites to target Ukraine. Bolsonaro and family arrive in Miami and are issued visas for the US. Iran says that Qatari negotiated peace deal to end US-Israeli aggression is unacceptable through intermediaries.

synchronoptica

one year ago: the discovery of tomb of King Tut (with synchronoptica) plus assorted links to revisit

two years ago: a tarot card inspired garden, more air-based food plus a Trump rally in Manhattan 

three years ago: presidential personal coats-of-arms 

four year ago: further adventures plus unblogged Crete

five years ago: your daily demon: Shax, Gulliver’s Travels plus more on being in the flow state

six years ago: the Greek flag adopted, priority group mall Santas, the short films of Al Jarnow, a pizza chain’s logo plus a home-makeover for the Simpsons

seven years ago: a constellation in the Southern Hemisphere, a mundane Halloween plus The Millennial Raven

eight years ago: a day-trip to Frankfurt plus more links to enjoy

 

day two hundred twenty eight (13. 910)

Amid unrelenting attacks from the Houthis, Saudi Arabia postpones hosting UN World Data Forum, days after cancelling its “Davos in the Desert”—the annual flagship Future Investment Initiative conference aimed to diversify its portfolio away from being a petrostate. The headquarters of Saudi-Aramco is evacuated over safety concerns for remaining staff. Though the White House defers with a GLOMAR response, sources familiar with the planning confirm to the press that Washington and Tel Aviv are in the process of finalising a renewed series of strikes on Pickaxe Mountain and Iranian petrochemical facilities, not wanting to further exacerbate markets (though they are reacting) in the last days to the run-up to the respective countries’ elections. Even if the ultra-conservative government of Netanyahu is ousted, Palestinians hold out little hope for reform or improvement as the opposition refuses to entertain a two-state solution. US troops withdraw from bases in Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, as the Revolutionary Guard announces a total ban of American service members and vessels from entering the gulf region and threatens to attack personnel and US assets.

day two hundred eighteen (18. 880)

Ignoring Trump“s unilateral truce (which the American president admits to fabricating) on energy infrastructure, Russian immediately strikes nuclear facilities at Kharkiv and Ukraine continues to lob missiles and drones at Russian oil fields and refineries. Kyiv also targets Yandex data centres, reportedly blunting disinformation bots’ activity with noticeably less campaign engineering than usual. Houthi rebels shut down Saudi airspace again and Iran, reputedly, disables Qatari natural gas exports. Ship-spotting suggests that Moscow is buying diesel from Tehran and selling it to America.

day two hundred five (13. 839)

Iran denies a role in the apparent plot to bomb an airbase in England. Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran continue in New York via Qatari mediators with both sides rejecting reports of compromise—Iran not pausing its nuclear programme and the US not offering sanction relief. The Supreme Leader issues a statement reasserting that Iran is the sole custodian of the Strait of Hormuz. A comprehensive framework for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon stalls at the American department of state, whilst US senator Bernie Sanders calls for an end of military aid to Israel following the state banned Arab parties from elections, disenfranchising Palestinians and leaving them not representation in the Knesset. Netanyahu holds secret meetings with the United Arab Emirates. Russia strikes Ukraine Academy of Sciences as ten-thousand North Korean troops prepare to mobilise. Ebola cases surpass eight thousand in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Europe braces for the next energy shock as fuel prices continue to climb and the US diesel export ban looms. OpenAI scraps the release of its latest frontier model over safety concerns.

day one hundred eighty-five (13. 773)

Forces of the Yemeni regular army begin a counteroffensive in hopes of retaking Sanaa from Houthi rebels, the Saudi-led regional defensive pact vowing to intervene if more civilians are killed in the crossfire. Iraq searches for alternate routes for petroleum exports as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz again grinds to a halt. Israel constructs a road partitioning the West Bank. Qatar warns of an irrecoverable “industrial catastrophe” if the crisis in Iran is not resolved soon. EU pledges over two hundred million in aid to Greenland amid continued threats of annexation from Trump. The Panama Canal cuts maritime traffic further as El Niño strengthens. Russia closes a consulate in Germany as tensions rise.

day one hundred eighty-three (13. 769)

With economic indicators like the better than expected jobs numbers and crippling inflation pointing to a need to increase interest rates, Trump (sporting a new coif apparently) threatens his newly minted chair of the Federal Reserve that if he does not comply and reduce rates, the American president will embargo countries that have a trade surplus with the US and suspend all economic activity—as an alternative to the reciprocal tariffs declared unlawful. The US fires upon at least six tankers headed towards Iranian ports—confirming by the numbers its new tit-for-tat policy of striking an Iranian affiliated ship for every commercial vessel or US asset targeted by Tehran, the Revolutionary Guard attacking a US naval warship enforcing the blockade. Netanyahu orders the IDF to bomb Qatar, labeling it a hostile state. Special envoys Kushner and Witkoff, despite their terrible track records, hold a late night meeting with Putin to discuss ending the war with Ukraine—in time for the midterms. AfD is poised to take over state government of Saxon-Anhalt as more suspected acts of sabotage against Germany‘s power grid are narrowly thwarted by authorities—Russian agents are thought to be behind the attacks. The US justice department pauses cooperation with the government of Canada.

day one-hundred fifty-two (13. 689)

Jordan, whose Hashemite monarchy administers the religious site in Jerusalem and maintains the status quo treaty that stipulates only Muslims can prayer there, convenes an emergency meeting of ministers from the Islamic world due to the possible Israeli takeover of the al-Aqsa mosque and Dome of the Rock, which the Jews refer to as the Temple Mount. Tensions are heightened as illegal settlements continue to edge out the Palestinian population in the West Bank. With Qatar reportedly brokering indirect talks, US secretaries of state and the treasury hint that a deal over the Strait of Hormuz will be achieved very soon (“possibly today or tomorrow” as opposed to two-weeks) and fuel prices will begin to tumble as Trump complains about oil companies’ record quarterly profits and demands lower petrol prices. Iranian president Masud Pezeshkian asserts he has no intention of resigning amid speculation regarding his political future.

day one-hundred forty-two (13. 653)

After Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were ruled executive overreach by the US supreme court, the American president has sought other avenues to rebuild his regime of punitive levies on what he perceives as uncooperative partners taking advantage of his largess, including imposing a fifty percent tariff on Canadian goods over forest fires and a ten percent base tax on some eighty countries Trump accuses of forced labour practises. Amidst intense exchanges of fire and the lowest maritime traffic passing through the Persian gulf in almost two months, Trump further insists without evidence that Iran is engaged in “far more serious talks” but not quite ready (beaten into submission) to make a deal yet. Iranian proxies, the Houthi rebels in Yemen declare that they do not intend to completely the Bab al-Mandab strait and access to the Red Sea—only the Saudi side. Riyadh launches strikes on the port city of Hodeida in response. US bases (plus Amazon data-centres and warehouses) in the region continue to come under attack, vowing to kill an American soldier for every Iranian civilian life lost to the US nightly raids. After sacking the defence minister, Zelenskyy relieves his army chief, both Kiev and Moscow under fire.

day one-hundred thirty-eight (13. 641)

Middle Eastern nations are on high alert has hostilities continue to flare, the Revolutionary Guard declaring that Iran is in a state of all out war as US forces strike the southern cities of Shiraz and Tabriz and western Azerbaijan province. Sirens blare across Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar as more ballistics fall. Trump repeats his vow that the deaths of service members will be avenged many times over with secretary of state Rubio accusing Iran, rather obviously, of using its control of the Hormuz as “leverage against the world” whilst calling on other countries to share the burden of protecting global shipping. US fighter jets based in Germany are to be stationed at Israeli air force stations for safety. New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani speculates on the possibility of enforcing a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court—of which the US is not a signatory—should Netanyahu visit for a UN summit in September to the outrage of the American president, saying that the Israeli prime minister will in “no way, shape or form be arrested” and extradited. After a Riyadh-led occupation of the airport of the Yemeni capital of Sanaa to prevent Iran from sending aid to the rebels, the Houthi declare access to the Red Sea cut off to Saudi Arabia. US peacekeeping operations begin in southern Lebanese “pilot zones” as part of the trilateral peace agreement with Tel Aviv. Hamas names new political bureau chief, Khalil al-Hayya.

day one-hundred thirty-three (13. 622)

Facing international backlash, just like over his arbitrary and vacillating tariff regime, Trump walked back his plan to impose twenty percent transit fees on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, turning to investment deals in the gulf to help offset costs of policing the waterways. US strikes continue with explosions reported on Qeshm Island and the deployment of submarine drones—threatening to bomb bridges, highways and power plants over stalled talks, whilst Iran continues aerial assaults against Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. New sanctions against the Iranian shadow financial network by America are announced. The governor of South Carolina appoints Lindsay Graham’s sister to serve out his term as the governor of Kentucky demands an in person interview with Mitch McConnell and a medical assessment, wanting to make his own appointment should McConnell be unable to return to the senate chamber.

day one-hundred thirty-two (13. 617)

Former staunch critic turned ally of Trump, the hawkish long term senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham dies suddenly after a short unexpected illness, having recently returned from a trip to Ukraine and championing increased sanctions against Russia at the relatively young age of seventy-one for the gerontocracy, whilst the country has been awaiting news on the health of former senate leader Mitch McConnell, hospitalised for weeks with no explanation or sighting, fuelling speculation that the Kentucky senator is dead or effectively so. It’s not outside of the realm of possibilities that Graham was assassinated by a Russian agent—not so much for his stance but to spook Trump, already a target for the killing of Iran’s former Supreme Leader. It is believed that the developments on McConnell’s heath are being withheld until the statutory filing date to prevent Kentucky’s Democratic governor from calling a special election before the mid-terms, leaving the seat vacant, South Carolina’s Republican governor can appoint a replacement for Graham. Iran launches retaliatory strikes on US bases in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain after the US conducts attacks on coastal radar site and air defence systems, America insisting that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

day one-hundred twenty-five (13. 594)

Dayslong funeral services are held for the late Supreme Leader with the new ayatollah still conspicuously absent from public view. OPEC has agreed to increase production as the Strait Hormuz gradually opens. Trump is slated to discuss maritime security at the upcoming NATO summit as trade resumes between Qatar and Iran as well as ending the Russia-Ukraine war. A cargo ship is attacked off the coast of Yemen. Tehran names a new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

day one-hundred twenty-two (13. 580)

The Qatari foreign ministry reports positive progress related to the Islamabad MOU, despite the fact Tehran might not be participating and rejects US assertion regarding IAEA inspectors to all nuclear research facilities and rejecting Trump’s condition on unfrozen assets being used to exclusively buy American agricultural products. Through traffic continues to flow through the Hormuz, shippers say the Strait is still like a war-zone. Moscow conducts a deadly air raid over Kiev with multiple drone and missile strikes.  US declines to renew Trump’s version of the NAFTA trade deal struck with Canada and Mexico in January 2020.

day one-hundred twenty-one (13. 576)

The Qatari foreign ministry confirms that no high-level meeting between US and Iranian officials is scheduled to take place in Doha over the coming days despite the arrival of envoys Kushner and Witkoff, Tehran saying it is currently not negotiating with Washington in any capacity and will not resume talks until violence ends in Lebanon. Concerned over increased executions has prompted French lawmakers to sponsor individual death-row political prisoners, whilst German intelligence services find that Iran is spying on opposition activists domestically.

day one-hundred thirteen (13. 543)

Keir Starmer tenders his resignation as prime minister and leader of Labour, following a series of political crises and rifts internal to the party over economic and immigration policy and election strategy after the success of conservative Reform UK in the general election. Starmer is expected to be replaced by Andy Burnham before the end of parliament’s summer recess. The Iran delegation leave Switzerland after a day of productive talks, with a sixty day waiver on oil sanctions granted and agreeing with the US in principle to a roadmap for peace, allowing the IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities. With secretary of state, Rubio headed to the region to allay security fears, it remains unclear what US vice president Vance and special envoy Witkoff and Kushner have accomplished, the president’s son-in-law preoccupied with massive demonstrations in Albania over a planned property development deal that would damage fragile swampland and corruption in the government that acquiesced to this project in the first place. Sticking-points regarding Iranian restitution and possible conditions being placed on unfrozen assets also remain—though the negotiations have settled on an island of optimism that a final peace settlement could be in place by February.

day one-hundred twelve (13. 541)

Despite yesterday’s indefinite postponement and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz over deadly strikes in Lebanon (American forces in the region dispute this claim saying ship traffic continues to flow), diplomatic delegations scrambled to reach Lucerne to begin formal talks. Trump publically admits that the US is is four-weeks away from an even more debilitating oil shock. The US team consisting of the same ineffectual members, Vance, Witkoff and Kushner, dispatched in a succession of negotiations that quickly spiralled into war is in attendance. Israel announced it refuses to withdraw from its security zone south of Beirut, neither side directly represented in the talks. Discussions are expected to carry on for days with side sessions addressing maritime security, but the main focus is on the sticking points of deescalation and Iran’s nuclear programme—the proposal presently being to not allow inspectors and to dilute the existing stockpile to well below weapon-grade. Fuel sales are suspended in Crimea after a wave of attacks by Ukraine on the illegally annexed territory.