people were getting yippy (12. 380)

Though the markets reacted with a rally that restored some of the trillions in wealth evaporated in the chaos of the past few days, nothing is fixed by this pause for bespoke tariffs—the universal tax of ten percent is being levied on exports from essentially every country on Earth and for Chinese goods, at the time of writing, facing a 125% duty. This is America’s Brexit moment: the multi-front trade war may have been polarised between Washington and Beijing but this negotiation period of three months is highly unlikely to net any real progress—especially through the lens of the UK’s departure from the EU and the drawn out complexity of leaving and reintegrating with continental partners as a bloc that is still fraught with challenges and damaged trade relations. China’s refusal to withdraw its retaliatory measures and to go toe-to-toe with Trump will only escalate matters. And while stocks may have pivoted in response to this less worse news, the credibility is squandered not only by this abrupt turn-about, that the US flinched, but moreover there’s no guarantee that negotiators could keep their end of a bargain and it unclear what if any concessions would be offered in return for relocating manufacturing or loosening regulations on environmental and safety standards. For a brief time it seemed that Trump would not be cowed by the markets—and from his telling, it was always part of genius plan—it seems that he was not wholly untethered to economic forces and nearly as one can surmise, the threat to the bond exchange (investors, foreign and domestic, generally retreating to buying and holding US debt as a safe haven in times of broader turmoil) with the usual flock not materialising this time was sufficient to spook his advisors and convince him to change course. With little investor appetite for government securities, the US would need to offer higher interest to finance their debts, whose rates determine all others and could very quickly make borrowing for anyone very difficult and lead to a panic. China and Trump are both willing to gamble with the economic future, though the former is positioned to gain in the long-term by standing fast in this trial if it is able to shift its focus from exports toward consumption whereas for the latter, the market is very much saturated. Unfortunately countries uncoupled from doing business together are generally disengaged from working together on tackling bigger problems, like foreign policy and the environment, as well.