day one hundred sixty

The EU issues another condemnation of continued political executions in Iran whilst Lebanon outlaws the death penalty. Houthi rebels maintain their hold on the junctions to the Red Sea. A grounded Russian tanker is leaking oil off of the coast of Oman—threatening environmental damage greater than the Exxon Valdez. Even if markets are still failing to acknowledge realities, the the International Energy Agency assesses that the world is burning through petroleum reserves.

day one hundred fifty six

Greenlandic authorities issue stern warnings to a Trump-linked, Texas-based oil company when drilling equipment arrives and is unloaded via tugboats on the semi-autonomous arctic island without permission—or license for petroleum extraction with Nuuk having a moratorium on exploration since 2021 for environmental concerns and the site borders on a protected wetland. Scheduled to begin drilling according to the company in October, claiming there are a trillion barrels in the reservoir and ostensibly a path to lowering gas prices just before the midterms and a casus belli for annexation should Greenland refuse allowing kit to be put in place.

The US president responds to the situation with a dumb but very menacing AI generated image. The Revolutionary Guard announces that the exclusively Iranian-Omani deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is indefinitely postponed due to American interference and not honouring terms of their negotiations unless America corrects its behaviour, despite major concessions already granted—with extra disdain for Trump trying to insert himself into the talks that the US administration had nothing to do part in.

day one-hundred fifty-five (13. 696)

Türkiye enters a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, saying the alliance does not contradict its commitment to NATO. Small municipal water utilities across the US experience cyber attacks on their equipment, with authorities suspecting Iranian hackers though Trump dismisses the assessment—instead blaming the incompetence of political opponents like Wisconsin governor Tim Walz. America promises to lift the blockade of Iranian ports without conditions once Tehran and Muscat finalise negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

day one-hundred fifty-three (13. 691)

Houthi rebels target a Saudi Arabian oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, issuing more warning to vessels to avoid Saudi ports. IDF launches strikes on the suburbs south of Beirut. Tehran and Muscat appear ready to finalise a deal for entrance and egress respectively cleaving to the coastlines of the Islamic Republic and the Sultanate, presaging reopening of the Hormuz under their joint-administration, barring interference from certain third-parties.  Meanwhile Trump lauds the deal to restore access “tomorrow or the next day” with the US manifestly excluded from negotiations, conditioned on the end of the American blockade. Humanoid character and US secretary of the treasury Scott Bessent: “Is this a pigeon?”

synchronoptica

one year ago: posthumously restoring citizenship to a confederate general (with synchronoptica), Trump eliminates board of labour statistics following a week jobs report plus ant-eater coevolution

two years ago: Trump assures Christian supporters that if they vote for him this once, they’ll never have to worry about voting again plus assorted links worth revisiting 

three years ago: an anomaly observatory, more links to enjoy plus the Nixon tapes

four years ago: a chart-topper from Doris Day, an album from Pink Floyd, an insightful globe plus an aesthetic mapping app

five years ago: even more links, a Da Vinci sketch plus a classic from The Beatles

six years ago: potential TikTok ban in the US, early advances in telegraphy, even more links plus a critique of The Giving Tree

day one-hundred fifty (13. 684)

Categorically denying Trump’s claim that he called off the “biggest attack since World War II” at the request from Iran so that talks could resume on Monday (without providing details of where or with whom) regarding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran says reports from Washington were untrue, that no negotiations have been scheduled and that Iranian forces stand ready to defend themselves. Officials add that the only imminent deal being negotiated is with Oman for administration of the vital maritime artery and are not interested in working with the US over continued violations of their MOU: Despite the fact that this marks the fourth of fifth time Trump has stepped back from the brink, citing phantom progress, the markets hang on his every word and react with irrational exuberance.

day one-hundred forty-four (13. 660)

After showing his cards by pushing for an extension of the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding told that the world was four weeks away from economic collapse due to energy shocks, Trump also over-shares his decision to scale back strikes, driven by critically low munition supplies. Touting the pause as a space for diplomacy, Iran has also halted retaliatory attacks on Gulf allies hosting US bases. During the hostage crisis, Tehran waited out the Carter administration for four-hundred forty-four days to time their release with Reagan’s inauguration. Separately, Iran and Oman have continued negotiations about management of the Strait of Hormuz and the Supreme Leader insists that Lebanese territorial integrity must be included in any future negotiations with Washington. Netanyahu, under considerable political pressure to show his campaigns against Iran and Hezbollah have been effective as he is up for reelection and has been critical of the US willingness to try to make a deal, is to meet with Trump on Tuesday.

day one-hundred thirty (13. 608)

At least as far as we know publicly, Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence from his father’s six-day funeral may signal shifting dynamics in the leadership of the Islamic Republic and questions of the legitimacy of his succession and authority. The US economic pressure campaign intensifies with more sanctions on Iran’s financial networks. A bill advances through the US senate to expand sanctions on Russia as Ukraine continues to strike Russian energy infrastructure, damaging tankers transiting the Azov Sea. The UK and the EU is reconsidering a scheme to allow voluntary tolls for the Strait of Hormuz as Washington seeks assurance from Tehran to stop firing on ships taking the American sponsored Omani route through the passage. The ceasefire is over, as Trump declared, but talks continue—though ready to destroy Iran in case of an attempt against his life with “1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran with thousands more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Glove, to assassinate—or attempt to assassinate—the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case ME! ”

day one-hundred twenty-nine (13. 606)

Funeral processions held across Iran and Iraq for the former ayatollah have concluded with Ali Khamenei entombed at the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad. US strikes destroy railway bridges, other infrastructure and hit near the Bushehr nuclear power plant. American commanders insist Tehran does not control the Strait of Hormuz though the situation looks to be the opposite. Foreign minister Abbas Araqchi increases efforts to garner international support against US adventurism with counterparts in Oman, Türkiye and Pakistan over renewed fighting and tensions trouncing the ceasefire arrangement and further stalling negotiations. Israeli defence minister Israel Katz prepares the military to reengage Iran if needed.

day one-hundred twenty-six (13. 596)

After granting Iran a week off out of respect for the funeral of the late Supreme Leader, Trump renews his threats to “finish the job” militarily if Tehran does not agree to a deal under US terms. A fleet of Japanese flagged tankers leave the Persian gulf after being stranded for months, whilst ships come under fire cleaving close to the Omani coast. Netanyahu claims Christian villages in southern Lebanon have asked to be annexed by Israel to protect them from Hezbollah. Zelenskyy reportedly will not be allowed to speak during the NATO summit. During a play-off, the American president intervenes to pressure FIFA officials to reconsider a penalty imposed against one of the star players of team USA and reverse the referee’s red card—forever earning the game an asterisk (see also) in the history books.

day one-hundred twenty (13. 571)

Maritime traffic through the Hormuz has declined sharply, Tehran saying no further talks are scheduled despite Trump’s claim for a technical working group meeting in Doha on the logistics of safely operating the strait, the truce still holdings as both the US and Iranian military actions are paused. Inflation in Iran flirts with a sixty percent increase as the price of food staples have nearly doubled since the start of the conflict, supposedly some six billion dollars of Iranian deposits will be unfrozen. Tension continue to rise with Oman over the disposition of the waterway with Muscat competing to open more routes and opposing tolls. IDF incursions into southern Syria draw condemnation from Middle East nations.

day one-hundred fifteen (13. 554)

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard rejects the proposed route by its Omani partners through the Strait of Hormuz, saying that safe passage can only be guaranteed for the lanes issued by Tehran and any deviation would pose a risk to traffic. The Department of War requests an addition eighty-eight billion dollars in funding related to the Iran conflict and the Ebola outbreak in Africa. Meeting with NATO secretary-general Rutte, Trump boasts that Iran has conceded to everything that he has asked for and revived old grievances with allies, ahead of the annual summit to be hosted in Ankara, which the US president plans to attend. IDF insists it will remain in Lebanon, potentially undermining the peace process.

addendum (13. 535)

Underwriter Lloyd’s of London intelligencer branch that tracks maritime shipping data reports that Tehran’s and Muscat’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority are mandating that vessels transiting the Hormuz take out special coverage through government approved providers. This insurance requirement is regarded as a prelude to tolls, which is probably the least worst thing to come out of the stultifyingly bad grand deal of Trump’s— a nominal fee factored into the cost of doing business that would be passed along to the consumer but a tax we think anyone would happily pay in exchange that Trump and his minions don’t embark on more empire-building adventures with the tolerance, forethought and follow-through worse than a package tourist. Despite the ceasefire announced yesterday between Hezbollah and the IDF, strikes continue with dozens more dead in southern Beirut, pressuring Iran to take action and respond to what hardliners are calling a blatant violation of the MOU with Washington unable to reign in Israel, whose minister of national security declared that “all of Lebanon must burn.” Direct negotiations stalled with the US, Pakistani interior minister Mohsin Naqvi returns to Tehran for meetings with high level officials.

day fifty-seven (13. 384)

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi left the Pakistani capital to travel to Oman and Russia for separate as talks with the US were abruptly put on hold once again, the envoys told to cancel their trip to Islamabad, with Trump calling direct negotiations a waste of time, despite claims he received a better offer from Iran shortly before suspending the meeting. The American navy continues the blockade of the Persian Gulf and expands operations to detect and disable sea mines and wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. Despite the truce, Netanyahu is ordering an intensification on attacks of Hezbollah in the suburbs south of Beirut.  Nearly two months into the war, shipping and supply chains frayed beyond easy repair, national economies of all sizes are formulating contingency plans to brace for long term disruption and scarcity.  Trump adds that the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ will not deter his Middle East policy.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links worth the revisit (with synchronopticæ), crab allies plus Trump and Zelenskyy hold an impromptu meeting at the Pope’s funeral

 

twelve years ago: net neutrality 

 

thirteen years ago: natural dyes 

 

fourteen years ago: asteroid prospecting 

 

fifteen years ago: passport application process in US made more difficult 

day thirty-five (13. 319)

As the United Nations security council debates a Bahraini resolution to safeguard commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, Iran is working with Oman to draft peacetime protocols for a toll scheme and the supervision of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage already open for Russian and Filipino tankers. US army chief of staff Randy George was dismissed and forced into immediate retirement, and Trump fires attorney general Pam Bondi, saying she is transitioning to a “much needed and important new job in the private sector” as his cabinet reshuffle continues. The White House accidentally uploads a speech by Trump given to a private audience of guests during an Easter luncheon, admitting his monarchical aspirations, frustrations and impatience, admitting that there is no money left daycare or healthcare subsidies, which should be made a responsibility of state governments.  The video was taken down but not before it was widely circulated. Targeting civilian infrastructure, the US claims responsibility for destroying the largest bridge in Iran following threats days before to bomb the country “back to the stone ages” if no deal is reached, despite ongoing confusion about negotiating parties.

synchronoptica

one year ago: assorted links worth revisiting (with synchronopticæ), Mars attacks, US tariff rates set by AI plus poor pronunciation

twelve years ago: proto-Putin Verstehers plus spy vs spy

thirteen years ago: the Red Army Faction and the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon 

fourteen years ago: UK debates restrictions on freedom of movement plus justice for those subjected to force labour building railways for the Nazis

 

day thirty (13. 305)

Pro-Iranian elements in Iraq have targeted Syria, including lobbing missiles at US bases in the northeastern province of Hasakeh as Oman and Kuwait continue to repel drone assaults and Iran destroys Bahraini and Emirati aluminium factories in retaliation—connecting the industry to the US military. After multiple universities came under attack in Iran, Tehran declares American institutions of higher education in the region to be legitimate targets. A contingency of paratroopers and marines arrive in the Middle East as the US prepares for ground operations, reportedly planning raids rather than a full-scale invasion. The exiled crown prince, the son of the deposed shah is encouraging protesters to rise up and overthrow the theocracy, signalling that he would be willing to take on a leadership role in government. Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon have killed three journalists and numerous health care workers, drawing international condemnation.

 

synchronoptica

one year ago: whitewashing America’s past (with synchronopticæ) plus happy birthday Amy Sedaris

 

thirteen years ago: A Carol for Another Christmas

 

fourteen years ago: Big Pharma and its lobby 

 

fifteen years ago: the convenience industry of spying 

 

sixteen years ago: Easter break