day seven (13. 237)

Israeli defence forces issuing evacuation orders for neighbourhoods south of the Lebanese capital of Beirut, urging hundreds of thousands to leave the suburbs purportedly under control of Hezbollah, and in turn Hezbollah tells Israeli civilians living near the border to leave. Ukraine’s offer for technical assistance in thwarting Iranian Shahed drone attacks is accepted as Gulf states express discontent and frustration with the continued assault for hosting American assets, given no time to prepare little cover. The US grants Indian refineries a waiver to temporarily purchase Russian oil, just after pressured by the administration to extend sanctions to help end the war in Ukraine. A Democratic-backed measure to halt hostilities in the US congress without the consent of legislature was blocked by Republicans, allowing Trump to continue the expanding—Azerbaijan has been drawn in after an aerial assault on its Nakhchivan exclave, though Iran denies involvement—and chaotic fighting unimpeded by convention or formal declaration. Trump also insists to be part of the decision-making process for the appointment of Iran’s new Supreme Leader. 

tripp (13. 162)

Unwelcome at the Olympics, US vice president JD Vance continues his Eurasian junket to the South Caucasus in order to undergird a peace deal brokered by Trump—one among many that failed to secure him the Nobel prize—through talks with the leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia aimed to forward progress on a plan to construct a strategic transit artery, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, the forty-three kilometre concept of road (also known as the Zangezur corridor (Զանգեզուրի միջանցք, Zəngəzur dəhlizi)linking Azerbaijan to its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic—hailed as a hallmark achievement of recent negotiations though the idea had already been championed by Türkiye during the ceasefire agreement of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. The route would bypass Iran and Russia and is seen as an opportunity to expand regional trade with the US. Vance’s presence at a time when tensions are rising in Iran and the US threatening intervention are seen as a sign of commitment to Baku and Yerevan, creating markets for exports and defining minerals strategy that is—with secured development rights—a rebuke to China’s influence over critical resources in both countries. Meanwhile, critics of the settlement see it as efforts towards pan-Turkic expansion and America’s past flirtation with neighbouring Georgia seem to be be very much consigned to the past.