Saturday 14 June 2014

al-sham

An organization deemed too violent and radical, by some accounts, for al Qaeda called currently the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (al-Sham) have barnstormed the country, catching many observers in the West completely off guard, capturing major cities and advancing to Baghdad virtually unopposed. The Iraqi armies, trained and equipped by the American occupying forces that mostly left in 2011, have folded and are surrendering en masse as the fully-pledged military force of the militants moves through the land, increasing its strength en route as it acquires materiel for fighting and conquest in the form of installations, vehicles and supplies that the American's left behind for the Iraqi's own peace-keeping mission. The group's wider aims extend to Syria and establishing a caliphate under strict Islamic law and banishing the West from the region. It was not enough to revive the language and rhetoric of Cold Warriors with tensions returned to make their world-view yet relevant; now it seems that all the old lessons not learned and debates surrounding Iraq and Middle East policy are back en vogue as well.

There is an exodus of refugees fleeing ahead of the violence and it is an unqualified crisis—however, even if the US could scramble its military might and again deploy to the region (much of its key infrastructure already lost to rebel control and no reliable native fighting forces to supplement their mission), there is insufficient means to judge the situation and the ramifications of intervention, which could well make the situation much, much worse. I had believed that the all-seeing eyes of the US intelligence communication could have delivered some form of warning—which, even if unheeded, might have made decisions better than reactionary. The situation is, I think, not so simple as the sectarian violence among two different traditions of the faith—which would surely not welcome the arbitration of Christendom or of McWorld, again, in any case, but is complex, what with Kurdish separatists in the north taking advance of the chaos to secure independence, Iranian overtures to help quell the violence and the most likely outcome of air-strikes for a nation weary of being the world-police being protracted commitments and deepening the divide between traditions, whereas the US wants a unity government among all peoples and keep together the lines in the sand drawn as borders for these nations that the West itself demarcated after the end of (traditional) colonialism and the World Wars.